JimWyckoff's Commentaries
Softs Market Commentary
May sugar closed down 63 points at 22.01 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for sugar yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices were higher. Yet, sugar could not manage to rally, which is another bearish clue for sugar. Serious chart damage has occurred in sugar recently. Prices are still in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 24.00 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the October 2009 low of 20.44 cents. First resistance is seen at 22.50 cents and then at yesterday's high of 22.80 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 21.93 cents and then at 21.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
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May coffee closed down 30 points at 132.00 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for coffee yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices were higher. Yet, coffee could not rally, which is another bearish clue for coffee. Coffee bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 137.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 124.75 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 133.05 cents and then at 135.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 130.25 cents and then at last week's low of 128.25 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
May cocoa closed up $14 at $2,843 yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday after hitting another fresh six-month low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured yesterday. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for cocoa yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices were higher. Serious chart damage has occurred recently. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August 2009 low of $2,742. First resistance is seen at 2,864 and then at $2,900. First support is seen at $2,800 and then at yesterday's low of $2,780.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
May cotton closed up 106 points at 82.91 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for cotton yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices were higher. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues of a market top being close at hand. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at 82.50 cents and then at 82.00 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 83.40 cents and then at 84.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.
May orange juice closed down 65 points at $1.4820 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday on profit taking after hitting a fresh five-week high early on. Prices this week have produced a bullish upside "breakout" from a recent sideways trading range. FCOJ bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Fundamentals are also bullish as analysts are looking for the smallest Florida orange crop in 20 years. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at the January high of $1.5815. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.4000. First resistance is seen at $1.5000 and then at $1.5100. First support is seen at $1.4750 and then at $1.4600.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
May lumber futures closed up $6.50 at $274.00 yesterday. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart and closed near mid-range yesterday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some upside momentum yesterday. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $280.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at this week's low of $264.50. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $275.70 and then at $277.50. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $271.30 and then
at $269.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
Tags: coffee | cocoa | sugar | cotton | orange-juice | lumber | futures