Friday, March 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today, as traders await this morning's important U.S. jobs data.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Commodity traders, an excellent gauge for determining the overall trend in commodity markets is the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI). The CCI is a basket of 17 commodity futures markets rolled into one composite price index. Downside price action in the CCI in January suggested commodity markets such as metals and energies had topped out. However, the month of February saw the CCI trend higher. A look at the weekly CCI chart shows the CCI index has been trending higher since December of 2008, and also suggests January's downside price action was just a downside price correction in an overall longer-term uptrend in the index. Indeed, he CCI's technical posture is fully in favor of commodity market bulls.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Prices hit fresh six-week highs overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as four-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,121.90 and then at Thursday's low of 1,113.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,127.70 and then at 1,135.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,865.00 and then at 1,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,858.00 and then at Thursday's low of 1,844.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,827.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,450 and then more stops just below support at 10,400. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,500 and then at 10,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,338

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today, following gains posted Thursday. Bulls need to show more power soon to continue the fledgling uptrends on the daily bar charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 16/32 and then at Thursday's low of 117 2/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 29/32 and then at this week's high of 118 2/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 22/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 20/32--second pivot point resistance
118 7/32--first pivot point resistance
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
118 2/32--previous day's high
117 25/32--previous day's close
117 20/32--pivot point
117 15/32--4-day moving average
117 7/32--first pivot point support
117 2/32--previous day's low
116 29/32--9-day moving average
116 25/32--100-day moving average
116 20/32--second pivot point support
116 14/32--18-day moving average
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 117.22.0 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.08.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
118 --second pivot point resistance
117 24/32--first pivot point resistance
117 22/32--previous day's high
117 17/32--previous day's close
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 15/32--pivot point
117 14/32--4-day moving average
117 7/32--first pivot point support
117 5/32--previous day's low
117 2/32--9-day moving average
116 30/32--second pivot point support
116 24/32--18-day moving average
116 3/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Bulls need to show more power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily chart in place. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.00 and then at 81.25. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.75 and then at 80.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The June Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 1.3548 and then at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3605 and then at 1.3650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings today, on a corrective bounce from losses seen Thursday. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,140.00 and then at this week's high of 1,145.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,130.70 and then at Thursday's low of $1,125.90. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,137.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week's high of $81.23 and then just above resistance at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.16. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering. Grain traders will continue to look to the outside markets for direction. However the outside markets react to today's key U.S. jobs report, the grain traders are likely to take their cues from that. Corn bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend in place. Soybean bulls have also faded badly. Wheat is the weakest market of the grains, fundamentally, and bears also have the technical advantage in that market.