Monday, March 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Trading in the U.S. dollar index and Euro currency futures has turned more sideways and choppy recently. Still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the Euro currency has bottomed or the U.S. dollar index has put in a market top.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are steady to slightly lower in quiet early morning trading today. Prices poked to a fresh seven-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as four-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,130.00 and then at Friday's low of 1,121.90. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,149.50 and then at the January high of 1,147.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Friday's high of 1,890.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,875.00 and then at Friday's low of 1,858.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,849.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,525 and then more stops just below support at 10,500. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday's high of 10,560 and then at 10,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,416

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today, following bearish weekly low closes on Friday. Bears have gained fresh downside near-term technical momentum recently.June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 9/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 21/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 22/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 14/32--second pivot point resistance
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 29/32--previous day's high
117 18/32--first pivot point resistance
117 9/32--4-day moving average
117 3/32--9-day moving average
117 1/32--pivot point
116 23/32--100-day moving average
116 22/32--previous day's close
116 16/32--previous day's low
116 11/32--18-day moving average
116 5/32--first pivot point support
115 20/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.08.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.26.5 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
118 --second pivot point resistance
117 20/32--previous day's high
117 16/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 11/32--4-day moving average
117 6/32--9-day moving average
117 5/32--pivot point
117 1/32--previous day's close
116 25/32--previous day's low
116 23/32--18-day moving average
116 21/32--first pivot point support
116 10/32--second pivot point support
116 3/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today. Trading has become choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.75 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.39 and then at last week's low of 80.14. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The June Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices trade in a choppy and sideways pattern at lower price levels. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3624 and then at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3702 and then at 1.3750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near steady in early dealings today. Prices remain in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,140.00 and then at last week's high of 1,145.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,132.60 and then at $1,125.90. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,137.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $82.41 and then just above resistance at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $80.39. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were slightly higher in overnight trading, on short covering following a weak finish to trading last week. Grain futures bulls are fading again. Grain traders will continue to look to the outside markets for direction. The outside markets are in a mildly bullish posture for grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker and crude oil prices are firmer.