Wednesday, March 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer crude oil and gold futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Most agricultural commodity futures markets have price "seasonality," whereby prices tend to trend higher or lower at certain times of the year. The seasonality in ag markets is mostly due to the weather. If you'd like to know the seasonality patterns of specific ag futures markets, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach a story I wrote on the matter a while back.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as four-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,138.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,131.70. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,145.00 and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,123.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Tuesday's high of 1,912.00 and then at 1,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,900.00 and then at 1,890.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,862.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,550 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 10,525. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 10,605 and then at 10,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,439

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy but the bulls have faded.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 even and then at 115 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 17/32 and then at this week's high of 116 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 9/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 5/32--second pivot point resistance
117 4/32--9-day moving average
116 27/32--4-day moving average
116 27/32--previous day's high
116 25/32--first pivot point resistance
116 23/32--100-day moving average
116 15/32--pivot point
116 13/32--previous day's close
116 13/32--18-day moving average
116 5/32--previous day's low
116 3/32--first pivot point support
115 25/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.04.5 and then at 117.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the this week's low of 116.26.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 14/32--second pivot point resistance
117 9/32--9-day moving average
117 8/32--first pivot point resistance
117 7/32--previous day's high
117 4/32--4-day moving average
117 2/32--previous day's close
117 1/32--pivot point
116 27/32--first pivot point support
116 26/32--previous day's low
116 25/32--18-day moving average
116 20/32--second pivot point support
116 4/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Trading has become choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.13 and then at 81.20. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday's low of 80.72 and then at this week's low of 80.39. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.83. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The June Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices trade in a choppy and sideways pattern at lower price levels. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3543 and then at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Tuesday's high of 1.3635 and then at this week's high of 1.3702. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings today, on a corrective bounce from selling pressure earlier this week. Prices remain in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,130.00 and then at 1,135.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,120.90 and then at $1,115.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,117.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $82.00 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $82.41. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $80.39. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in quieter overnight trading. Grain market bears have the near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting this morning's USDA supply and demand report, and especially the U.S. corn production revisions expected in this report. The key "outside markets" are in a mildly bullish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is steady to weaker, while crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock index futures prices are steady to firmer.