JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Mar 10 2010

Grain Market Analysis

May corn futures closed down 6 1/4 cents at $3.68 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and hit a fresh three-week low. The key outside markets were in a bearish posture for corn yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer, while crude oil and gold prices were weaker. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Wednesday morning's USDA supply and demand report and the re-adjustments to production due to last year's delayed harvest. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the February low of $3.59 a bushel. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.80 a bushel. First resistance for May corn is seen at $3.72 and then at yesterday's high of $3.75 1/4. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $3.68 1/4 and then at $3.65.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

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May soybeans closed down 1/2 cent at $9.47 1/2 a bushel yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and saw position evening ahead of Wednesday's USDA supply and demand report. The key outside markets were in a bearish posture for beans yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer, while crude oil and gold prices were weaker. Soybean bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $9.11. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is pushing and closing May prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $9.71 1/2. First resistance for May soybeans is seen at this week's high of $9.52 3/4 and then at $9.60. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $9.35 and then at $9.25.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May soybean meal closed up $0.10 at $258.80 yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday on short covering. Bears have the near-term technical advantage in meal. However, my bias is that the downside is limited in meal. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $250.00. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $270.00. First resistance comes in at this week's high of $260.90 and then at $262.50. First support is seen at
yesterday's low of $255.00 and then at $252.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May bean oil closed down 5 points at 40.23 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. The key outside markets were in a bearish posture for bean oil yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer, while crude oil and gold prices were weaker. Bean oil prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bean oil bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 39.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 41.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 40.56 cents and then at 41.00 cents. First support is seen at 40.00 cents and then at this week's low of 39.82 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents at $4.88 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh four-week low yesterday. The key outside markets were in a bearish posture for wheat yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer, while crude oil and gold prices were weaker. Traders are awaiting Wednesday morning's USDA supply and demand report. A 3.5-month-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily chart, drawn from the November, December and January highs. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $4.80 3/4. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close March futures prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $5.26 a bushel. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $4.94 1/2 and then at $5.00. First support lies at yesterday's low of $4.88 and then at $4.80 3/4.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $4.97 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and hit a fresh four-week low. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $5.27. The bears' next downside objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $4.92 1/2. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $5.00 and then at $5.12 1/2. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $4.97 and then at $4.92 1/2.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May oats closed down 2 1/2 cents at $2.25 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a fresh 7.5-month low close. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $2.24. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.40. First support lies at yesterday's low of $2.25 and then at $2.24. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $2.28 and then at $2.30.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.



Tags: corn | soybeans | wheat | grains | futures
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