Thursday, March 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar index continues to trade in a sideways and choppy fashion at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. It's my bias that the dollar index is presently storing up energy for a bigger upside burst in prices in the not too distant future.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as five-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,135.30 and then at this week's low of 1,131.70. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 1,147.90 and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,124.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday's contract high of 1,921.00 and then at 1,930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday's low of 1,900.75 and then at 1,890.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,868.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 10,468 and then more stops just below support at 10,400. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 10,530 and then at 10,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,447

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. The bulls have faded this week and bears have fresh near-term downside technical momentum.June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday's low of 115 27/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at the overnight high of 116 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 8/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 2/32--9-day moving average
116 29/32--second pivot point resistance
116 23/32--100-day moving average
116 20/32--first pivot point resistance
116 17/32--previous day's high
116 15/32--4-day moving average
116 14/32--18-day moving average
116 10/32--previous day's close
116 7/32--pivot point
115 30/32--first pivot point support
115 27/32--previous day's low
115 17/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.30.0 and then at 117.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.18.5 and then at 116.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.19.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 11/32--second pivot point resistance
117 7/32--9-day moving average
117 4/32--previous day's high
117 3/32--first pivot point resistance
116 31/32--4-day moving average
116 29/32--pivot point
116 28/32--previous day's close
116 26/32--18-day moving average
116 22/32--previous day's low
116 21/32--first pivot point support
116 15/32--second pivot point support
116 4/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Trading has been choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.84 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 80.39 and then at 80.13. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The June Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices trade in a choppy and sideways pattern at lower price levels. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3619 and then at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Wednesday's high of 1.3678 and then at this week's high of 1.3702. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are weaker in early dealings today. Bulls are fading this week. Prices remain in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls need to show fresh power soon. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,111.70 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of $1,103.10 and then at $1,100.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,096.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $82.32 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $83.03. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.50 and then at $81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $80.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading. Grain market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat traders got a dose of bearish fundamental news from Wednesday morning's USDA supply and demand report. My bias is that there is not a lot more downside price pressure left in the grain markets, with prices at present levels.