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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Thursday
Thursday, March 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in quieter overnight/early morning
trading today is weaker U.S. stock index futures prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index continues to trade in a
sideways and choppy fashion at higher price levels.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. It's my bias that the dollar index is
presently storing up energy for a bigger upside
burst in prices in the not too distant future.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning
trading today, on profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage as five-week-old uptrends
are in place on the daily bar charts.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,135.30 and then
at this week's low of 1,131.70. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at Wednesday's
high of 1,147.90 and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,124.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Wednesday's contract high of 1,921.00
and then at 1,930.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Wednesday's low of 1,900.75 and
then at 1,890.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,868.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Wednesday's low of 10,468 and then more
stops just below support at 10,400. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday's high of 10,530 and then at 10,550.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,447
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in
early trading today. The bulls have faded this week
and bears have fresh near-term downside technical
momentum.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Wednesday's low of 115 27/32 and then at 115 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even
and then at the overnight high of 116 15/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116 8/32
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds
126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 2/32--9-day moving average
116 29/32--second pivot point resistance
116 23/32--100-day moving average
116 20/32--first pivot point resistance
116 17/32--previous day's high
116 15/32--4-day moving average
116 14/32--18-day moving average
116 10/32--previous day's close
116 7/32--pivot point
115 30/32--first pivot point support
115 27/32--previous day's low
115 17/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
116.30.0 and then at 117.08.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
116.18.5 and then at 116.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116.19.0
JUNE U.S. T-Notes
120 9/32--lifetime high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 11/32--second pivot point resistance
117 7/32--9-day moving average
117 4/32--previous day's high
117 3/32--first pivot point resistance
116 31/32--4-day moving average
116 29/32--pivot point
116 28/32--previous day's close
116 26/32--18-day moving average
116 22/32--previous day's low
116 21/32--first pivot point support
116 15/32--second pivot point support
116 4/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today. Trading has been choppy and sideways
at higher price levels. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.84
and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week's low of 80.39 and then at 80.13. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
80.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The June Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage as prices trade in a choppy and
sideways pattern at lower price levels. Euro finds
sell stop orders are likely located just below
technical support at the overnight low of 1.3619
and then at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at Wednesday's high
of 1.3678 and then at this week's high of 1.3702.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early
today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Comex gold futures are weaker in early dealings
today. Bulls are fading this week. Prices remain in
a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but
now just barely. Bulls need to show fresh power
soon. For April gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of
$1,111.70 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at Wednesday's low of
$1,103.10 and then at $1,100.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,096.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today.
Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the overnight
high of $82.32 and then just above resistance at
this week's high of $83.03. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low
of $81.50 and then at $81.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $80.76.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. Grain
market bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Corn and wheat traders got a dose of
bearish fundamental news from Wednesday morning's
USDA supply and demand report. My bias is that
there is not a lot more downside price pressure
left in the grain markets, with prices at present
levels.
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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