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Softs Market Commentary
May sugar closed down 63 points at 19.69 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and hit another fresh 7.5-month low. Serious chart damage has occurred in sugar recently, including more yesterday. Prices are in a steep six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early technical clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. However, the market is now short-term oversold and due for a corrective, short- covering bounce. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 22.40 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 18.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 20.00 cents and then at yesterday's high of 20.38 cents. First support is seen at 19.50 cents and then at 19.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
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May coffee closed down 40 points at 132.35 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 137.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 128.25 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 134.25 cents and then at 135.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 131.40 cents and then at this week's low of 130.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5
May cocoa closed up $43 at $2,845 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday after hitting a fresh 6.5-month low early on. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. If there is good follow-through buying on Thursday, then a bullish "key reversal" pattern would be confirmed on the daily chart to then suggest a market bottom is in place. The key outside markets were in a bullish posture for cocoa yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were firmer. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August 2009 low of $2,742. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 2,860 and then at $2,887. First support is seen at $2,800 and then at yesterday's low of $2,754.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
May cotton closed down 12 points at 80.21 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and hit a fresh two-week low. More profit taking and position evening was featured and no serious chart damage has occurred. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage, but have faded a bit and need to show fresh power soon. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 78.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 82.44 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 79.42 cents and then at 79.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.50 cents and then at 81.00
cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
May orange juice closed down 40 points at $1.4675 yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and saw more profit-taking pressure. FCOJ bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at the January high of $1.5815. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.4250. First resistance is seen at $1.4800 and then at $1.4900. First support is seen at this week's low of $1.4520 and then at $1.4400.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
May lumber futures closed up $1.30 at $288.30 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh three-week high yesterday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $295.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $270.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $290.00 and then at $293.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $284.50 and then at $280.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
Tags:coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, orange-juice, lumber, futures
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