Friday, March 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The grain futures markets have been under selling pressure recently and are at or near their lows of the past several months. However, my bias is that there is not much downside price pressure left in the grains. It appears the bearish fundamentals in these markets have all been factored into the present price structure. Seasonal factors generally favor the grain market bulls this time of year. Speculators are also getting more interested in the grains this time of year, wanting to get positioned on the long side in anticipation of bullish weather markets in the grains.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as five-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts and prices are at or near contract and multi-month highs.S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh 17-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,144.10 and then at 1,140.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,150.00 and then at 1,160.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,133.00.

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to a fresh contract high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 1,930.00 and then at 1,940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,920.25 and then at 1,910.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,550 and then more stops just below support at 10,500. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of 10,605 and then at 10,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,447

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. Trading has become choppy as bulls and bears struggle for near-term technical control, with neither gaining much headway.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 10/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 19/32 and then at the this week's high of 116 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 8/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 9/32--second pivot point resistance
116 29/32--9-day moving average
116 29/32--first pivot point resistance
116 25/32--previous day's high
116 22/32--100-day moving average
116 16/32--previous day's close
116 14/32--18-day moving average
116 13/32--4-day moving average
116 12/32--pivot point
116 --first pivot point support
115 28/32--previous day's low
115 15/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.24.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 116.18.0 and then at 116.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.19.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 5/32--9-day moving average
117 4/32--second pivot point resistance
116 30/32--previous day's high
116 29/32--first pivot point resistance
116 29/32--4-day moving average
116 26/32--18-day moving average
116 24/32--pivot point
116 23/32--previous day's close
116 18/32--previous day's low
116 17/32--first pivot point support
116 12/32--second pivot point support
116 5/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today and hit a fresh three-month low. Bulls are fading and do not want to see a bearish weekly low close today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.39 and then at today's high of 80.60. Shorter-term support is seen at  79.92 and then at 79.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.16. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The June Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3700 and then at the overnight low of 1.3668. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3796 and then at 1.3834. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3724. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings today, on short covering and amid the lower U.S. dollar index. Prices remain in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,119.50 and then at 1,125.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,108.30 and then at $1,103.10. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,117.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and are poised to produce a bullish weekly high close today. In April crude, look for buy stops to eside just above resistance at this week's high of $83.03 and then just above resistance at $83.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.11 and then at $81.33. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $81.18. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering following recent selling pressure. Grain market bears have the overall near-term technical dvantage. The key "outside markets" are in a ullish posture for the grains today, as crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices are higher, while the U.S. dollar index is lower.