Monday, March 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices and lower crude oil prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

April crude oil posted a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart on Friday and also posted a bearish weekly low close Friday. If there is solid follow-through selling pressure in crude oil early this week, that would be a good clue that a market top is in place and that prices will then begin to trend sideways to lower. Recent history shows the crude oil market has topped out around the $85.00-a-barrel level.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Mild profit-taking is featured following recent gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as five-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts and prices are at or near contract and multi-month highs.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,140.40 and then at last week's low of 1,131.70. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,146.00 and then at last week's high of 1,152.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,134.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Friday's contract high of 1,929.00 and then at 1,940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,910.00 and then at 1,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,888.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 10,540 and then more stops just below support at 10,500. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday's week's high of 10,585 and then at last week's high of 10,605. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,447

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. While trading has been choppy recently, the bullish weekly high close in T-bonds on Friday does give the bulls some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 28/32 and then at 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at last week's high of 117 7/32 and then at 117 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
118 1/32--second pivot point resistance
117 16/32--first pivot point resistance
117 7/32--previous day's high
116 30/32--previous day's close
116 28/32--9-day moving average
116 22/32--100-day moving average
116 21/32--pivot point
116 18/32--4-day moving average
116 16/32--18-day moving average
116 4/32--first pivot point support
115 27/32--previous day's low
115 9/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 117.07.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.25.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.06.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 15/32--second pivot point resistance
117 4/32--first pivot point resistance
117 3/32--9-day moving average
117 1/32--previous day's high
116 28/32--4-day moving average
116 26/32--18-day moving average
116 25/32--previous day's close
116 22/32--pivot point
116 11/32--first pivot point support
116 8/32--previous day's low
116 6/32--100-day moving average
115 29/32--second pivot point support
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, on short covering following Friday's bearish weekly low close in the index. Bulls are fading and need to show more power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.36 and then at Friday's high of 80.60. Shorter-term support is seen at last week' low of 79.94 and then at 79.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.16. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading, on a corrective pullback from recent gains that last Friday saw a bullish weekly high close in the Euro. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3700 and then at 1.3668. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3776 and then at Friday's high of 1.3796. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3659. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings today, on short covering following Friday's bearish weekly low close. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,110.00 and then at 1,115.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,101.00 and then at Friday's low of $1,097.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,116.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Prices are showing some follow-through selling pressure following Friday's bearish weekly low close in crude. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $81.31 and then just above resistance at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.44 and then at $80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $81.18. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The key "outside markets" are in a mildly bearish posture for the grains today, as crude oil and stock index futures prices are weaker, while the U.S. dollar index is firmer.