Tuesday, March 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a lower U.S. dollar index and higher gold prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The gold market bulls are regaining some fresh upside technical momentum this week, on short covering and some fresh speculative buying interest. Gold market bulls were impressed by the precious yellow metal's ability to make price gains Monday, in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar index. However, the gold bulls have more work to do in the near term to suggest prices can push above strong technical resistance at the March high of $1,145.80, basis April futures.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as five-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts and prices are at or near contract or multi-month highs.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,144.80 and then at Monday's low of 1,136.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,152.00 and then at 1,160.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,134.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the contract high of 1,929.00 and then at 1,940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,910.00 and then at Monday's low of 1,903.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,888.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,540 and then more stops just below support at 10,500. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last week's high of 10,605 and then at 10,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,447

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady levels in early trading today. Trading has been choppy recently as bulls and bears battle for technical control, with neither gaining much of an edge.June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 26/32 and then at Monday's low of 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at last week's high of 117 7/32 and then at 117 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 16/32--second pivot point resistance
117 7/32--first pivot point resistance
117 4/32--previous day's high
116 31/32--previous day's close
116 28/32--pivot point
116 26/32--9-day moving average
116 23/32--4-day moving average
116 22/32--100-day moving average
116 19/32--first pivot point support
116 19/32--18-day moving average
116 16/32--previous day's low
116 8/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.00.0 and then at last week's high of 117.07.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.24.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.06.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 5/32--second pivot point resistance
117 1/32--first pivot point resistance
117 1/32--9-day moving average
116 31/32--previous day's high
116 29/32--previous day's close
116 27/32--4-day moving average
116 27/32--18-day moving average
116 27/32--pivot point
116 23/32--first pivot point support
116 21/32--previous day's low
116 17/32--second pivot point support
116 6/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.53 and then at Monday's high of 80.65. Shorter-term support is seen at last week' low of 79.94 and then at 79.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.16. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, on short covering in an overall bear market. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3658 and then at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3750 and then at last week's high of 1.3796. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3659. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings today, on short covering and amid a weaker U.S. dollar index. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,116.00 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,108.10 and then at Monday's low of $1,101.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,116.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today, on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. The bulls have faded in crude. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $80.35 and then just above resistance at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $79.32 and then at Monday's low of $79.13. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.38. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly firmer in overnight trading, on short covering from recent selling pressure. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The key "outside markets" are in a mostly bullish posture for the grains today, as crude oil and stock index futures prices are firmer, while the U.S. dollar index is weaker.