Wednesday, March 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The crude oil market bulls are regaining some fresh upside technical momentum following a sharp sell off last Friday and on Monday. However, recent chart history does show that crude oil futures market rallies do peter out around $85.00 a barrel. If crude oil prices do post multiple closes above $85.00, then the door would be opened to a price move to $90.00 or even $100.00 a barrel. If nearby crude oil prices close below this week's low of $79.13 a barrel, then the door would be opened to a price move back down to $70.00, or below.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as six-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts and prices are at or near contract or multi-month highs.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,154.40 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,144.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,159.20 and then at 1,170.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,140.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight contract high of 1,933.50 and then at 1,940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,925.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,916.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,891.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,625 and then more stops just below support at 10,600. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the January high of 10,680 and then at 10,700. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,526

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are steady to firmer in early trading today. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum this week.June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices poked to a fresh three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral to bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 16/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 3/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 11/32--second pivot point resistance
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
118 --first pivot point resistance
117 24/32--previous day's high
117 21/32--previous day's close
117 13/32--pivot point
117 2/32--first pivot point support
117 1/32--4-day moving average
116 28/32--9-day moving average
116 26/32--previous day's low
116 24/32--18-day moving average
116 22/32--100-day moving average
116 15/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.16.0 and then at the March high of 117.22.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.06.5 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.06.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 28/32--second pivot point resistance
117 19/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 14/32--previous day's high
117 11/32--previous day's close
117 6/32--pivot point
117 1/32--9-day moving average
116 30/32--4-day moving average
116 30/32--18-day moving average
116 29/32--first pivot point support
116 24/32--previous day's low
116 16/32--second pivot point support
116 7/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at 80.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.74 and then at 79.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.43. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5The June Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Prices poked to a fresh five-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3700 and then at this week's low of 1.3639. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3819 and then at 1.3834. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3724. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings today, amid a weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. Gold market bulls have regained some upside near-term technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,133.90 and then at 1,140.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,120.00 and then at $1,115.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,128.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. The bulls have regained upside technical momentum. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $82.70 and then just above resistance at last week's high of $83.16. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.72 and then at $81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $81.59. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on more short covering from recent selling pressure. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The key "outside markets" are in a bullish posture for the grains again today, as crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices are firmer, while the U.S. dollar index is weaker.