JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Mar 17 2010

Softs Market Commentary

May sugar closed down 109 points at 18.30 cents yesterday. Prices again closed near the session low and hit a fresh eight-month low. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for sugar Tuesday, as crude oil prices were sharply higher, U.S. stock indexes higher and the U.S. dollar index was lower. Yet, the market sold off sharply anyway, which is yet another bearish clue for sugar. Serious chart damage has occurred in sugar recently. Prices are in a steep six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 21.00 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 17.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 18.50 cents and then at 19.00 cents. First support is seen at 18.00 cents and then at 17.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

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May coffee closed up 135 points at 132.40 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday on short covering in a bear market. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for coffee Tuesday, as crude oil prices were sharply higher, U.S. stock indexes higher and the U.S. dollar index was lower. Coffee bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 135.20 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 128.25 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 133.40 cents and then at 135.20 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 130.60 cents and then at this week's low of 129.70 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

May cocoa closed down $15 at $2,851 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday after hitting a fresh seven-month low early on. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for cocoa Tuesday, as crude oil prices were sharply higher, U.S. stock indexes higher and the U.S. dollar index was lower. Yet cocoa could manage no gains. Cocoa bears have the near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum this week. Prices are in a steep two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August 2009 low of $2,742. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 2,889 and then at $2,900. First support is seen at $2,800 and then at $2,742.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May cotton closed up 104 points at 81.80 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for cotton Tuesday, as crude oil prices were sharply higher, U.S. stock indexes higher and the U.S. dollar index was lower. The bulls did regain some fresh upside technical momentum yesterday by negating a two-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at last week's low of 78.70 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of 84.60 cents. First support is seen at 81.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 82.00 cents and then at 82.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May orange juice closed down 140 points at $1.5025 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday on profit taking from recent gains. FCOJ bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at the January high of $1.5460. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.4500. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $1.5130 and then at last week's high of $1.5255. First support is seen at $1.4900 and then at this week's low of $1.4765.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May lumber futures closed down $0.60 at $272.40 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Chart damage was inflicted this week. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's of $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the March low of $264.50. First resistance is seen at $275.00 and then at $277.50. First support is seen at $270.00 and then at $268.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.



Tags: coffee | cocoa | sugar | cotton | orange-juice | lumber | futures
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