Thursday, March 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

U.S. Treasuries (T-Bonds and T-Notes) bulls this week have gained fresh upside technical momentum and have jump-started uptrends on the daily charts. The FOMC statement this week has given the Treasuries bulls fundamental support on ideas U.S. interest rates will remain low for some time to come.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as six-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts and prices are at multi-month highs.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,154.40 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,144.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 1,165.00 and then at 1,175.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,152.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,935.25 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,944.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,925.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,916.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,920.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 10,643 and then more stops just below support at 10,600. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the January high of 10,680 and then at Wednesday's high of 10,705. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,606

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices firmer in early trading today. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum this week.June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices poked to a fresh three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 29/32 and then at Wednesday's low of 117 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 9/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 11/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 18/32--second pivot point resistance
118 11/32--first pivot point resistance
118 5/32--previous day's high
118 3/32--previous day's close
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 29/32--pivot point
117 22/32--first pivot point support
117 16/32--previous day's low
117 13/32--4-day moving average
117 8/32--second pivot point support
116 29/32--9-day moving average
116 29/32--18-day moving average
116 22/32--100-day moving average
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.17.5 and then at the March high of 117.22.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.06.5 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.06.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 21/32--second pivot point resistance
117 17/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 16/32--previous day's high
117 12/32--previous day's close
117 11/32--pivot point
117 7/32--first pivot point support
117 6/32--previous day's low
117 3/32--4-day moving average
117 1/32--second pivot point support
117 1/32--18-day moving average
117 --9-day moving average
116 8/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.32 and then at 80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.94 and then at Wednesday's low of 79.73. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.43. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading.Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1.3639 and then at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3742 and then at Wednesday's high of 1.3819. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3724. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings today, despite a firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices. Gold market bulls have regained upside near-term technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $1,133.90 and then at 1,140.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,118.40 and then at $1,110.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,128.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on mild profit-taking pressure. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the March high of $83.16 and then just above resistance at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.89 and then at $81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $81.59. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback from gains seen Wednesday. Corn and soybean bulls are working on market bottoms, but have more work to do in the near-term to suggest such. The key "outside markets" are in a bearish posture for the grains again today, as crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices are weaker, while the U.S. dollar index is firmer. Grain traders will closely examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales data.