JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Mar 19 2010

Energy Market Analysis

May crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February’s low, January’s high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 79.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 85.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.03. Second support is Monday’s low crossing at 80.89.

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May heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February’s low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 217.90 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 205.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 215.60. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 217.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.11. Second support is Monday’s low crossing at 205.51.

May unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 252.92 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 220.56 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 231.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 252.92. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 223.85. Second support is Monday’s low crossing at 220.57.

May Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday and below weekly support crossing at 4.157 as it extends this winter’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter’s decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.671 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.483. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.671. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.119. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.



Tags: crude-oil | natural-gas | heating-oil | unleaded-gasoline | futures
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