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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday
Wednesday, May 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold futures, as prices continue to trend higher from the April low amid the weaker U.S. dollar.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gasoline futures on Tuesday hit multi-month highs, with crude oil prices also hitting fresh for-the-move highs. However, gasoline futures have been the leader on the upside in the liquid energy futures complex. How interesting that gasoline futures prices have been outpacing the rest of the complex and have hit multi-month highs just as the peak driving season gets under way in the U.S.--while at the same time crude oil inventories in the U.S. are at the highest levels in over 10 years.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer again in early morning trading today. The bulls remain resilient and still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 902.50 and then at 890.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 915.80 and then at 925.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 902.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 908.70
1st Support:-------- 901.55
2nd Support:-------- 896.60
1st Resistance:----- 913.65
2nd Resistance:----- 920.80
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,388.00 and then at 1,375.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,403.00 and then at this week's high of 1,411.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,398.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,394.85
1st Support:------ 1,378.70
2nd Support:------ 1,363.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,410.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,426.35
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 8,445 and then more stops just below support at 8,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then at the May high of 8,550. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,424
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,470
1st Support:------ 8,424
2nd Support:------ 8,400
1st Resistance:--- 8,494
2nd Resistance:--- 8,540
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady in early trading today. The bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum amid the recent rally in the stock market.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 121 9/32 and then at this week's low of 121 2/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 121 25/32 and then at 122 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 121 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 121 15/32
1st Support:----- 121 5/32
2nd Support:----- 120 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 121 29/32
2nd Resistance:-- 122 7/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 121.00.0 and then at 121.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 120.10.5 and then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120.14.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 120 18/32
1st Support:----- 120 12/32
2nd Support:----- 120 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 even
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is lower again in early trading and hit a fresh five-month low overnight. Bears have gained downside momentum this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 82.00 and then at the overnight high of 82.34. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.76 and then at 81.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3600 and then at the overnight low of 1.3579. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the May high of 1.3719 and then at 1.3750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3602. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the May high of $934.80 and then at $938.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $925.30 and then at $920.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $60.99 and then just above resistance at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $59.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $59.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are once again bullish early today as the U.S. stock indexes are firmer, crude oil prices are firmer and the U.S. dollar is weaker. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction. Grain bulls are gaining upside technical momentum this week.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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