Sign inJimWyckoff's Commentaries
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Thursday
Thursday, May 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil futures and a firmer U.S. dollar.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
In my last bi-weekly newsletter I talked about most of the futures markets being a "money game" at present. By that I mean that money is flowing into many commodity markets (on the long side) at present, with those markets paying less attention to their own supply and demand fundamentals and more attention to what the "outside markets" are doing. Crude oil traders are watching the U.S. stock indexes and the value of the U.S. dollar, while most other futures market traders are watching those three key markets. This week's price action reinforces the notion of a money game being played in the markets at present. When markets start acting like they have been in recent weeks, technical analysis becomes even more important than normal--especially price trends. Traders, keep a very close watch on the daily charts, watching for any early technical clues that would suggest present price trends are changing. I'll keep you informed of such in my afternoon Daily Markets Update reports.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Profit taking from recent gains is likely today. The indexes have been trading basically sideways for two weeks.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 890.00 and then at this week's low of 875.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 900.80 and then at 915.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 902.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 907.55
1st Support:-------- 891.90
2nd Support:-------- 883.85
1st Resistance:----- 915.60
2nd Resistance:----- 931.25
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,375.00 and then at 1,360.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,392.50 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,398.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,400.85
1st Support:------ 1,378.70
2nd Support:------ 1,364.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,414.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,436.85
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then at 8,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,424
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,452
1st Support:------ 8,333
2nd Support:------ 8,270
1st Resistance:--- 8,515
2nd Resistance:--- 8,634
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher in early trading today. The Treasuries are continuing to trade in a general inverse relationship with the U.S. stock indexes.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 122 7/32 and then at 122 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 123 even and then at 123 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 121 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 122 7/32
1st Support:----- 121 23/32
2nd Support:----- 120 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 123 6/32
2nd Resistance:-- 123 22/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 121.16.0 and then at 122.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 120.25.0 and then at this week's low of 120.10.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120.14.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 120 28/32
1st Support:----- 120 17/32
2nd Support:----- 120 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 121 11/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 22/32
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading, on a short covering bounce in a bear market. Prices hit another fresh five-month low overnight. Bears still have downside momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.50 and then at 82.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.88 and then at 80.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.81. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3736 and then at 1.3700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3735 and then at 1.3900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3775. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is slightly higher in early dealings today and did hit a fresh two-month high overnight. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $944.00 and then at $950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $936.20 and then at $930.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $61.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $61.87. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $59.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $59.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on some profit-taking pressure from recent gains. The key "outside markets" are bearish early today as the U.S. stock indexes are weaker, crude oil prices are lower and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction, but will scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales report.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
Share
