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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, May 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil futures, a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker U.S. stock index futures prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The raw commodity futures markets look to be under selling pressure to start the week, with crude oil leading the way amid the stronger U.S. dollar. Key will be if traders continue to "buy the dips" in commodity market prices, which has been the case for most commodity markets recently. Also, the greenback is still in serious overall technical trouble, which favors the commodity market bulls.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. The indexes have been trading basically sideways at higher levels for three weeks.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Friday's low of 875.30 and then at last week's low of 873.10. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 890.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 905.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 880.40
1st Support:-------- 870.00
2nd Support:-------- 860.00
1st Resistance:----- 890.00
2nd Resistance:----- 900.00
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,350.00 and then at 1,343.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,366.00 and then at 1,375.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,370.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,359.25
1st Support:------ 1,350.00
2nd Support:------ 1,340.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,370.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,380.00
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,100 and then more stops just below support at 8,050. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at Friday's high of 8,252. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,204
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,217
1st Support:------ 8,183
2nd Support:------ 8,165
1st Resistance:--- 8,235
2nd Resistance:--- 8,269
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, amid weaker U.S. stock index prices today and on a short covering bounce. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 26/32 and then at 117 16/32 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 9/32 and then at 118 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 14/32
1st Support:----- 117 11/32
2nd Support:----- 116 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 4/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.31.0 and then at 118.18.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.14.5 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 117 29/32
1st Support:----- 117 9/32
2nd Support:----- 116 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 29/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading, on short covering. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.21 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.74 and then at the overnight low of 80.44. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading, on profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3846 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3950 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3798. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on a corrective pullback from recent strong gains. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $960.00 and then at last week's high of $964.60. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $945.00 and then at the overnight low of $938.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $955.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today, on a profit-taking pullback from recent strong gains. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $61.00 and then just above resistance at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $59.53. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $59.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are bearish early today as the U.S. stock indexes are weaker, crude oil prices are lower and the U.S. dollar is stronger. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction, as weather in the Corn Belt at present is deemed benign. No fresh weather scares at this time.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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