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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Thursday
Thursday, May 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major world currencies.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Did you notice on Wednesday that U.S. stock indexes and U.S. Treasury market prices were both lower? That's a strong clue that money is flowing out of paper assets and into hard assets, such as raw commodity markets. Indeed, crude oil futures prices on Wednesday hit a fresh six-month high. Many commodity markets have been trending solidly higher in recent weeks or the past few months. It would not surprise me to see a sizeable downside correction in those commodity futures markets at some point in the not-too-distant future. However, traders would be unwise to try to be top-pickers and attempt to short those markets, without first seeing some early technical warning signals that those markets have peaked and will start to trend lower. That's where my end-of-day Daily Markets Update report comes in handy for you. I scan all the markets, every day, looking for those very early technical clues that price trends are about to change. When I see them, you'll read about them the same day, in my Daily Markets Update report.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning trading today. The indexes have been trading basically sideways at higher levels for three weeks. Traders appear to be getting a bit more leery about the recent stock market rally continuing.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 874.00 and then at the May low of 859.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 900.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 906.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 905.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 893.85
1st Support:-------- 881.20
2nd Support:-------- 874.35
1st Resistance:----- 900.70
2nd Resistance:----- 913.35
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,380.00 and then at 1,359.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,415.00 and then at 1,425.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,396.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,402.25
1st Support:------ 1,390.00
2nd Support:------ 1,380.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,410.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,420.00
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,200 and then more stops just below support at 8,150. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 8,300 and then at 8,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,204
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,286
1st Support:------ 8,182
2nd Support:------ 8,126
1st Resistance:--- 8,342
2nd Resistance:--- 8,446
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, after taking a beating again Wednesday as prices hit multi-month lows. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at 116 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 26/32
1st Support:----- 114 16/32
2nd Support:----- 113 27/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 25/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.09.5 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Wednesday's low of 115.19.0 and then at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 7/32
1st Support:----- 115 10/32
2nd Support:----- 114 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 20/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading, on more short covering. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.60 and then at 82.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.18 and then at 81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading, on more profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3785 and then at 1.3750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3880 and then at 1.3900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3798. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker again in early dealings today, on more of a corrective pullback from recent gains. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $954.90 and then at $960.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $945.80 and then at $940.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $955.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today, as prices hit another fresh six-month high overnight. Bulls are still technically strong. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $63.93 and then just above resistance at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $62.75 and then more sell stops just below support at $62.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $61.95. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are mixed early today as the U.S. stock indexes are near steady, crude oil prices are near steady and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction, as weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed benign. However, once the calendar turns to June, weather patterns in the Corn Belt will likely garner more trader attention.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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