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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Friday
Friday, May 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a sharply lower U.S. dollar versus the other major world currencies, and mostly higher commodity futures prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The sharply lower U.S. dollar today (the U.S. dollar index hit a fresh eight-month low overnight) has prompted fresh speculative buying interest in the commodity futures markets, led by crude oil. There's an old saying that "you don't want to stand in front of a steaming locomotive." At present, most commodity futures markets want to, and are, trending higher amid the fresh speculative interest on the long side. Those traders looking to sell into the rallies in the commodity markets should exercise extreme caution. Better for the market bears to look for some early technical weakness that would suggest uptrends have come to an end.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. The indexes are still trading sideways at higher levels. Traders appear to be getting a bit more leery about the recent stock market rally continuing.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 900.00 and then at 887.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 919.00 and then at the May high of 923.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 905.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 895.55
1st Support:-------- 887.10
2nd Support:-------- 873.55
1st Resistance:----- 909.10
2nd Resistance:----- 917.55
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,417.00 and then at 1,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the May high of 1,435.00 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,396.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,410.40
1st Support:------ 1,395.85
2nd Support:------ 1,373.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,432.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,447.40
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 8,405 and then at last week's high of 8,455. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,204
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,330
1st Support:------ 8,320
2nd Support:------ 8,315
1st Resistance:--- 8,335
2nd Resistance:--- 8,345
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 28/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 14/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 17/32
1st Support:----- 114 23/32
2nd Support:----- 113 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 13/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.15.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.01.5 and then at 115.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 even
1st Support:----- 115 16/32
2nd Support:----- 114 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 3/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in early trading and hit a fresh eight-month low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.50 and then at the overnight high of 80.90. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.95 and then at 79.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The September Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh 5.5-month high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at the overnight low of 1.3915. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4122 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3992. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh three-month high amid the sharply lower U.S. dollar. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $978.10 and then at $980.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $970.00 and then at $964.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $963.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher again early today, as prices hit another fresh six-month high overnight. Money is flowing into commodities at present, and crude oil is leading the way. Bulls are still technically strong. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $67.00 and then just above resistance at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $64.68. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $63.73. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are bullish early today as the U.S. stock indexes are firmer, crude oil prices are higher and the U.S. dollar is sharply lower. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction, as weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed benign. Traders will closely examine today's weekly USDA export sales data, delayed by one day because of the U.S. holiday on Monday.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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