Sign inJimWyckoff's Commentaries
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday
Monday, June 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading once again today is a sharply lower U.S. dollar versus the other major world currencies, and mostly higher commodity futures prices, led by crude oil.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Price action in the market place last week witnessed U.S. Treasury market prices (T-Bonds and T-Notes) hammered to fresh multi-month lows, the U.S. dollar hit a fresh eight-month low versus its major counterparts, and the U.S. equities market continued to chop in a sideways trading range. Meantime, crude oil futures notched a fresh six-month high and are leading a strong rally in many other commodity futures markets. What is compelling about last week's price action is the clues provided regarding the flow of money in the market place. Money has been flowing out of U.S. Treasuries as the general risk appetite of investors increases. However, the funds flowing out of the U.S. debt market are favoring hard assets (physical commodities) and not the stock market. The shrinking value of the U.S. dollar on the world currency markets has exacerbated the speculator interest in owning raw commodity futures or commodity exchange traded funds (ETF's). With crude oil futures prices knocking on the $70.00-a-barrel door at present and being in a solid 3.5-month-old up-trend on the daily chart, this market is arguably the leader of the general bull market run in commodities. The other candidate for leading the commodity bull charge recently is the deteriorating value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major world currencies. As long as crude oil prices can maintain an up-trend on the daily chart and the greenback remains in a weak posture, bull markets are likely to continue to play out in many commodity futures markets. Also, those commodity futures markets that have not participated in the strong rallies of late are likely to see some fresh speculative bargain-hunting buying interest from speculators.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today. The indexes this morning are setting fresh multi-month highs as the bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 920.00 and then at 91.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 940.00 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 905.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 909.75
1st Support:-------- 902.10
2nd Support:-------- 890.35
1st Resistance:----- 921.40
2nd Resistance:----- 929.15
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,432.00 and then at Friday's low of 1,411.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,456.25 and then at 1,475.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,415.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,428.85
1st Support:------ 1,417.70
2nd Support:------ 1,399.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,446.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,457.85
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,500 and then more stops just below support at 8,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,600 and then at 8,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,815
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,406
1st Support:------ 8,348
2nd Support:------ 8,266
1st Resistance:--- 8,488
2nd Resistance:--- 8,546
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today, amid the rally in the U.S. stock market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 24/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 13/32 and then at Friday's high of 117 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 3/32
1st Support:----- 116 12/32
2nd Support:----- 115 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 12/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 3/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.28.0 and then at Friday's high of 117.04.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.14.0 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 23/32
1st Support:----- 116 10/32
2nd Support:----- 115 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 26/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading and hit another fresh eight-month low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.90 and then at 80.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.10 and then at 78.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh 5.5-month high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4088 and then at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4232 and then at 1.4300. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4074. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh 3.5-month high amid the lower U.S. dollar. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $990.20 and then at $1,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $977.10 and then at $970.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $971.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher again early today, as prices hit another fresh six-month high overnight. Money is flowing into commodities at present, and crude oil is leading the way. Bulls are still technically strong. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.29 and then just above resistance at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $66.23. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $65.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Not much new. The key "outside markets" are bullish again early today as the U.S. stock indexes are firmer, crude oil prices are solidly higher and the U.S. dollar is lower. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction, as weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed benign.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
Share
