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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, June 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major world currencies, and mostly lower commodity futures prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
For quite some time, amid the economic and financial upset that occurred worldwide, U.S. Treasuries were the favored investment vehicle among many investors. However, the past several weeks have seen a big exodus of money from T-bonds and T-notes, as investors' risk appetite increased. Indeed, those markets are now in solid bear markets. Would-be bottom pickers in the U.S. Treasury markets need to beware. The path of least resistance in bonds and notes continues to be down.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls have gained upside near-term technical momentum recently, as prices have pushed to fresh for-the-move highs.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 935.00 and then at Monday's low of 926.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 950.00 and then at 965.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 917.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 934.20
1st Support:-------- 926.40
2nd Support:-------- 918.20
1st Resistance:----- 942.40
2nd Resistance:----- 950.20
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,465.50 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 1,482.00 and then at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,427.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,461.35
1st Support:------ 1,440.70
2nd Support:------ 1,411.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,490.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,511.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 8,600 and then more stops just below support at 8,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 8,650 and then at 8,700. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,815
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,627
1st Support:------ 8,604
2nd Support:------ 8,577
1st Resistance:--- 8,654
2nd Resistance:--- 8,677
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, on a short covering bounce in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 16/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 17/32
1st Support:----- 113 21/32
2nd Support:----- 112 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 18/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 14/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.30.5 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.14.0 and then at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 28/32
1st Support:----- 114 28/32
2nd Support:----- 114 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 16/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower again in early trading and hit another fresh eight-month low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.50 and then at the overnight high of 79.95. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.00 and then at 78.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.04. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading, and hit another fresh 5.5-month high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4200 and then at the overnight low of 1.4094. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4300 and then at 1.4350. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4084. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today, amid the weaker U.S. dollar. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $986.20 and then at this week's high of $990.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $977.00 and then at the overnight low of $970.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $971.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on mild profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. Bulls are still technically strong. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week's high of $68.68 and then just above resistance at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.59 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $65.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading, on profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. Bulls are still technically strong in the grains. The key "outside markets" are neutral early today as the U.S. stock indexes are firmer, crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is lower. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction, as weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed benign.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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