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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday
Wednesday, June 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major world currencies, and mostly lower commodity futures prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
There are still no early clues that the U.S. dollar will reverse its solid downtrend against the other major currencies. One early technical clue that the greenback has bottomed out would be if the U.S. dollar index produced two very strong up days in a row, or if the index produced a bullish weekly high close.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on some profit-taking pressure after recent gains. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 925.00 and then at 917.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 944.00 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 917.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 938.40
1st Support:-------- 932.75
2nd Support:-------- 927.40
1st Resistance:----- 943.75
2nd Resistance:----- 949.40
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,465.50 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,482.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,495.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,435.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,479.70
1st Support:------ 1,464.35
2nd Support:------ 1,450.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,493.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,509.20
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 8,630 and then more stops just below support at 8,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 8,693 and then at 8,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,815
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,660
1st Support:------ 8,628
2nd Support:------ 8,597
1st Resistance:--- 8,691
2nd Resistance:--- 8,723
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 115 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 4/32
1st Support:----- 114 23/32
2nd Support:----- 114 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 7/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.16.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 115.15.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 19/32
1st Support:----- 115 7/32
2nd Support:----- 114 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 even
2nd Resistance:-- 116 12/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.55 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 78.83. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.04. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading, but did hit a fresh eight-month high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4171 and then at 1.4100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4250 and then at the overnight high of 1.4327. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4116. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on profit-taking pressure after prices hit a fresh 3.5-month high overnight. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $985.00 and then at the overnight high of $992.10. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $974.20 and then at this week's low of $970.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $971.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on mild profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. Bulls are still technically strong. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week's high of $69.05 and then just above resistance at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.67 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $65.47. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on more profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls are still technically strong in the grains. The key "outside markets" are bearish today as the U.S. stock indexes are weaker, crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Grain traders are still looking to the outside markets for direction, as weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed benign.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes
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