Thursday, June 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

I am an advocate of using protective stop orders in trading markets. Employing protective buy or sell stops is a good money management tool. However, there is another kind of stop to employ in trading markets: time stops. I wrote a feature story a while back on using time stops in trading. If you'd like to read it, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and email it back to you.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes slightly higher in early morning trading today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 918.80 and then at 910.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 933.00 and then at this week's high of 944.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 917.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 925.95

1st Support:-------- 919.90

2nd Support:-------- 912.55

1st Resistance:----- 933.30

2nd Resistance:----- 939.33

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,473.75 and then at 1,459.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,487.75 and then at this week's high of 1,495.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,435.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,472.85

1st Support:------ 1,463.70

2nd Support:------ 1,449.85

1st Resistance:--- 1,486.70

2nd Resistance:--- 1,495.85

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,600 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 8,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 8,693 and then at 8,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,503

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,592

1st Support:------ 8,571

2nd Support:------ 8,529

1st Resistance:--- 8,634

2nd Resistance:--- 8,655

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 16/32 and then at 115 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at the overnight high of 116 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 17/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

124 13/32--100-day moving average

122 11/32--Previous Month's high

118 21/32--18-day moving average

117 9/32--second pivot point resistance

116 25/32--first pivot point resistance

116 18/32--9-day moving average

116 15/32--previous day's high

116 9/32--previous day's close

115 31/32--4-day moving average

115 31/32--pivot point

115 15/32--first pivot point support

115 5/32--previous day's low

114 21/32--second pivot point support

114 12/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.07.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.30.0 and then at 115.15.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.30.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

120 14/32--previous month's high

120 12/32--100-day moving average

118 3/32--18-day moving average

116 30/32--second pivot point resistance

116 19/32--9-day moving average

116 19/32--first pivot point resistance

116 12/32--previous day's high

116 8/32--previous day's close

116 2/32--4-day moving average

116 1/32--pivot point

115 22/32--first pivot point support

115 15/32--previous day's low

115 12/32--previous month's low

115 4/32--second pivot point support

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today, on more short covering in a bear market. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.50 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at the overnight low of 79.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.68. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4056 and then at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4116. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Gold is weaker in early dealings today, on more profit-taking pressure after prices hit a fresh 3.5-month high on Wednesday. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $970.00 and then at the overnight high of $972.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $962.00 and then at $955.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $971.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls are still technically strong. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $67.38 and then just above resistance at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $65.92 and then more sell stops just below support at $65.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $65.47. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses on Wednesday. The bulls did fade a bit on Wednesday. The key "outside markets" are mixed today as the U.S. stock indexes are near steady, crude oil prices are firmer and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Grain traders will closely examine today's weekly USDA export sales report, and are also looking ahead to the key June 10 USDA supply and demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed benign.