Wednesday, June 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today. Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s FOMC announcement from the Federal Reserve, regarding interest rates and monetary policy.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar is “on the ropes” again after a big down day on Tuesday. Price action the rest of this week will be extra important for the green back. If the dollar remains weak the rest of this week, then it’s likely the currency will set a fresh multi-month low and continue to trend still lower. If the dollar can post a rebound yet this week, then more of the same choppy-type trading that we’ve seen recently will likely continue. And if the dollar continues to erode in value, most commodity market bulls will benefit.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with the bears recently gaining fresh downside near-term technical momentum.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 884.30 and then at 875.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 900.00 and then 910.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 903.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:-------------889.60 1st Support:-------- 884.90 2nd Support:-------- 879.60 1st Resistance:----- 894.90 2nd Resistance:----- 899.60

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low 1,411.00 and then at 1,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuessday’s high of 1,434.00 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,454.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,423.00 1st Support:------ 1,412.00 2nd Support:------ 1,400.00 1st Resistance:--- 1,435.00 2nd Resistance:--- 1,446.00

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 8,228 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter- term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 8,310 and then at 8,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter- term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,297

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,265 1st Support:------ 8,220 2nd Support:------ 8,183 1st Resistance:--- 8,302 2nd Resistance:--- 8,347

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady in early trading today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have made progress recently that does hint at a near-term market bottom being in place. Look for more active trading in bonds and notes following this afternoon’s FOMC announcement.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18- day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 even and then at 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 117 14/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 1/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high 122 11/32--Previous Month's high 122 8/32--100-day moving average 118 16/32--second pivot point resistance 117 31/32--first pivot point resistance 117 14/32--previous day's high 117 13/32--previous day's close 116 28/32--pivot point 116 11/32--first pivot point support 115 26/32--previous day's low 115 23/32--4-day moving average 115 10/32--9-day moving average 115 8/32--second pivot point support 114 30/32--18-day moving average 114 12/32--previous month's low 110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 115.19.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.09.5 and then at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.23.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high 120 14/32--previous month's high 119 10/32--100-day moving average 116 2/32--second pivot point resistance 115 25/32--first pivot point resistance 115 19/32--previous day's high 115 16/32--previous day's close 115 12/32--previous month's low 115 10/32--pivot point 115 1/32--first pivot point support 114 27/32--previous day's low 114 24/32--18-day moving average 114 24/32--4-day moving average 114 24/32--9-day moving average 114 18/32--second pivot point support 109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Bears on Tuesday gained fresh downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.50 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.90 and then at 79.62. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Bulls gained upside near-term technical momentum on Tuesday. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3950 and then at 1.3900. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4133 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today, on a corrective bounce from recent losses. Prices are still trending lower from the June high. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of $935.60 and then at $940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $922.80 and then at this week’s low of $913.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today, following solid gains on Tuesday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $69.18 and then just above resistance at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.83. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Grain bulls are fading. The grains continue to look to the outside markets for direction. The outside markets are slightly bearish for grains early today as the U.S. stock indexes are firmer, crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans. But temperatures in the Corn Belt are heating up heading into July. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.