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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Thursday
Thursday, June 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in quiet overnight/early morning trading today is a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
One of the neat things about doing what I do for a living is that I have an audience. I get to write every day and give readers my thoughts and opinions on markets—and on rare occasions other topics, like today. Something terrible happened Wednesday morning in the small Iowa town of Parkersburg, which is less than 20 miles from where I live. The legendary Aplington- Parkersburg high school football coach was gunned down in the school’s weight room by a former A-P football player. Coach Ed Thomas was one of the most successful and respected high school football coaches in the state and the U.S. More importantly, he was a very good citizen, educator of young people and family man. A year ago, when a powerful tornado ripped through Parkersburg, Ed Thomas’s house was blown away, along with many others, and the high school was destroyed. As a pillar in the community, Ed led a rebuilding effort for the high school and its hallowed football field, which the locals call “The Sacred Acre.” Ed Thomas was a major force in getting this small, close- knit Iowa community back on its feet in the wake of the killer tornado. Many of us here in Iowa are still in a state of shock. It was surreal last night to watch NBC news anchor Brian Williams report on Coach Thomas’s murder. My thoughts and prayers go out to Coach Thomas’s family and the tiny little Iowa town of Parkersburg. Thanks for allowing me to share with you my little tribute to Ed Thomas. Now, it’s back to work for me.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning trading today. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with the bears recently gaining some fresh downside near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week’s low of 884.30 and then at 875.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 909.00 and then 920.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 903.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:-------------897.50 1st Support:-------- 888.50 2nd Support:-------- 879.00 1st Resistance:----- 907.00 2nd Resistance:----- 916.00
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low 1,444.75 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,421.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,462.00 and then at 1,477.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,454.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,463.25 1st Support:------ 1,449.50 2nd Support:------ 1,435.00 1st Resistance:--- 1,477.75 2nd Resistance:--- 1,491.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 8,200 and then more stops just below support at 8,150. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,300 and then at Wednesday’s high of 8,370. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,297
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,275 1st Support:------ 8,180 2nd Support:------ 8,105 1st Resistance:--- 8,351 2nd Resistance:--- 8,445
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly lower in early trading today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls had made some progress recently, but need to show fresh power soon.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18- day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 8/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 25/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 1/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high 122 11/32--Previous Month's high 122 6/32--100-day moving average 118 16/32--second pivot point resistance 117 30/32--previous day's high 117 14/32--first pivot point resistance 116 28/32--pivot point 116 12/32--previous day's close 116 10/32--previous day's low 116 6/32--4-day moving average 115 26/32--first pivot point support 115 19/32--9-day moving average 115 8/32--second pivot point support 114 28/32--18-day moving average 114 12/32--previous month's low 110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.08.5 and then at 115.19.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.26.5 and then at 114.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.23.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high 120 14/32--previous month's high 119 8/32--100-day moving average 116 15/32--second pivot point resistance 116 3/32--previous day's high 115 24/32--first pivot point resistance 115 12/32--previous month's low 115 11/32--pivot point 115 --previous day's close 115 --4-day moving average 114 31/32--previous day's low 114 27/32--9-day moving average 114 21/32--18-day moving average 114 20/32--first pivot point support 114 7/32--second pivot point support 109 --lifetime low CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy, but bears have the near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 81.30 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.71 and then at 80.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 1.3884 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4000 and then at 1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today, on a corrective bounce from recent losses. Prices are still trending lower from the June high. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $940.00 and then at $950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $930.30 and then at Wednesday’s low of $922.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then just above resistance at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $68.11. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.83. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to weaker in overnight trading. Grain bulls are still fading. Traders will examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales data. The grains continue to look to the outside markets for direction. The outside markets are mixed for grains early today as the U.S. stock indexes are near steady, crude oil prices are firmer and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans. But temperatures in the Corn Belt are heating up heading into July. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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