Sign inJimWyckoff's Commentaries
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Friday
Friday, June 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in quiet overnight/early morning trading today is a lower U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies and higher crude oil prices that are above $70.00 a barrel.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I’ve noticed something significant in the market place this week: There has been a de-coupling of markets, of sorts. By that I mean the key “outside markets”—crude oil, the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock indexes--which have been such a powerful force over other markets have this week become less influential over other markets. In recent months, many markets’ own supply and demand fundamentals took a back seat to what the outside markets were doing on a particular day. This was evident on a regular basis as most markets were “in synch.” If the dollar was weaker, then crude oil was higher and so were most of the other commodity markets. And if the U.S. stock indexes were higher then crude oil prices were usually higher. Or, when the stock market was lower, U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes were higher. However, in looking at my price screen this week I noticed that markets appeared to be trading more on their own fundamentals. For example, the grain futures markets were mostly down this week as grain traders focused on weather. T-Bonds and T- Notes saw buying support coming from good demand from investors at the U.S. debt auctions. Sugar rallied strongly on tightening world supply and demand fundamentals—even on days when the dollar was stronger. On any given day this week, some commodity markets were higher and some were lower, as there was not the “herd mentality” in those markets that had been seen in recent months. It could be that this week’s de-coupling of the markets is only temporary. But if this pattern continues next week, then odds will become higher that markets and market price action are returning to “normal”—meaning prices reacting more to their own supply and demand fundamentals and less to the key outside markets. One more very important point: Markets are inter- related. They always have been and always will be. What has been so unique the past 18 months has been the extreme influence those few outside markets have exerted over most other markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning trading today. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks. Such will likely continue to be the case heading into the middle of summer.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4- day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 900.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 891.30. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 925.00 and then 935.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 903.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:-------------908.50 1st Support:-------- 899.45 2nd Support:-------- 882.30 1st Resistance:----- 925.65 2nd Resistance:----- 934.70
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter- term technical support is located at 1,460.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 1,477.00 and then at 1,490.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,454.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,460.70 1st Support:------ 1,444.35 2nd Support:------ 1,415.70 1st Resistance:--- 1,489.35 2nd Resistance:--- 1,505.70
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,350 and then more stops just below support at 8,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 8,430 and then at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9- day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,297
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,438 1st Support:------ 8,267 2nd Support:------ 8,119 1st Resistance:--- 8,496 2nd Resistance:--- 8,577
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher in early trading today. The bulls on Thursday did gain some near-term technical momentum. The bulls still need to more power soon.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9- day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 19/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 118 5/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 11/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high 122 11/32--Previous Month's high 122 3/32--100-day moving average 119 20/32--second pivot point resistance 118 27/32--first pivot point resistance 118 9/32--previous day's high 118 3/32--previous day's close 117 17/32--pivot point 117 2/32--4-day moving average 116 24/32--first pivot point support 116 6/32--previous day's low 116 1/32--9-day moving average 115 14/32--second pivot point support 115 2/32--18-day moving average 114 12/32--previous month's low 110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter- term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 116.11.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.26.5 and then at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high 120 14/32--previous month's high 119 7/32--100-day moving average 117 10/32--second pivot point resistance 116 25/32--first pivot point resistance 116 11/32--previous day's high 116 7/32--previous day's close 115 25/32--pivot point 115 16/32--4-day moving average 115 12/32--previous month's low 115 8/32--first pivot point support 115 2/32--9-day moving average 114 26/32--previous day's low 114 22/32--18-day moving average 114 8/32--second pivot point support 109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy, but bears have the near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.59 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 79.90 and then at 79.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy, but bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at the overnight low of 1.3980. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4103 and then at this week’s high of 1.4133. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. Bulls are now gaining fresh upside technical momentum. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $950.00 and then at $960.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $938.20 and then at $930.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $71.29 and then just above resistance at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $69.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.83. Wyckoff's Intra- Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering. Grain bulls are still fading. Traders are looking forward to next Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand and acreage report. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. But temperatures in the Corn Belt are heating up heading into July. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
Share
