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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday
Monday, June 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index prices and higher crude oil prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Tuesday is an extra important trading day for the markets. It's the last trading day of the month, last trading day of the quarter and the year is half finished. For the grains, it's a also a big USDA report day. It's the last day of the month and the quarter that the big fund-type traders like to square up positions or adjust them. That can make for bigger market moves or higher volatility.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks. Such will likely continue to be the case heading into the middle of summer.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 907.40 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 925.00 and then 935.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 903.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 914.15
1st Support:-------- 908.30
2nd Support:-------- 902.65
1st Resistance:----- 919.80
2nd Resistance:----- 925.65
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,469.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,500.00 and then at the June high of 1,512.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,454.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,474.60
1st Support:------ 1,466.20
2nd Support:------ 1,455.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,485.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,493.60
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 8,345 and then more stops just below support at 8,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,430 and then at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,375
1st Support:------ 8,343
2nd Support:------ 8,312
1st Resistance:--- 8,406
2nd Resistance:--- 8,438
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today. The bulls have gained near-term technical momentum recently.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 118 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 11/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
122 11/32--Previous Month's high
122 1/32--100-day moving average
119 12/32--second pivot point resistance
118 30/32--first pivot point resistance
118 22/32--previous day's high
118 17/32--previous day's close
118 9/32--pivot point
117 27/32--first pivot point support
117 19/32--4-day moving average
117 19/32--previous day's low
117 6/32--second pivot point support
116 13/32--9-day moving average
115 8/32--18-day moving average
114 12/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.24.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.03.5 and then at Friday's low of 115.26.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
120 14/32--previous month's high
119 6/32--100-day moving average
116 30/32--second pivot point resistance
116 21/32--first pivot point resistance
116 16/32--previous day's high
116 13/32--previous day's close
116 8/32--pivot point
115 31/32--first pivot point support
115 26/32--4-day moving average
115 26/32--previous day's low
115 18/32--second pivot point support
115 12/32--previous month's low
115 8/32--9-day moving average
114 24/32--18-day moving average
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.59 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 79.90 and then at 79.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy, but bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at the overnight low of 1.3979. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at last week's high of 1.4133. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $943.20 and then at last week's high of $949.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $935.00 and then at the overnight low of $933.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has turned choppy. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $70.06 and then just above resistance at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $68.36. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.83. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was lower and soybeans and wheat were firmer. Grain bulls are still fading. Traders are looking forward to next Tuesday’s big USDA supply and demand and acreage report. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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