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Wednesday, July 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices and a rebound in many other commodity markets.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I've been writing about markets and trading for 25 years. One of my favorite feature stories I've written over the years addresses the all-important psychology of trading. If you'd like to read the story, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and email it back to you.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer again in early morning trading today. Trading has been choppy and lackluster heading into mid-summer. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 913.70 and then at this week's low of 907.40. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 926.00 and then 935.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 925.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 916.70
1st Support:-------- 907.35
2nd Support:-------- 899.20
1st Resistance:----- 924.85
2nd Resistance:----- 934.20
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,474.50 and then at 1,464.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,493.00 and then at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,473.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,478.10
1st Support:------ 1,463.20
2nd Support:------ 1,450.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,491.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,506.10
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,400 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 8,335. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 8,503 and then at 8,550. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,411
1st Support:------ 8,318
2nd Support:------ 8,243
1st Resistance:--- 8,486
2nd Resistance:--- 8,579
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. The bulls have faded a bit after recent gains and need to show fresh power soon.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 24/32 and then at Tuesday's low of 117 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 13/32 and then at Tuesday's high of 118 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 9/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
121 29/32--100-day moving average
119 19/32--second pivot point resistance
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 31/32--first pivot point resistance
118 27/32--previous day's high
118 12/32--4-day moving average
118 11/32--previous day's close
118 7/32--pivot point
117 19/32--first pivot point support
117 15/32--previous day's low
116 31/32--9-day moving average
116 27/32--second pivot point support
115 19/32--18-day moving average
111 21/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.12.0 and then at this week's high of 116.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the this week's low of 115.24.0 and then at 115.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.06.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
119 4/32--100-day moving average
117 2/32--second pivot point resistance
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 21/32--first pivot point resistance
116 19/32--previous day's high
116 11/32--4-day moving average
116 9/32--previous day's close
116 7/32--pivot point
115 26/32--first pivot point support
115 24/32--previous day's low
115 16/32--9-day moving average
115 12/32--second pivot point support
114 27/32--18-day moving average
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading today. Trading has been choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.68 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at this week's low of 79.69. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3999 and then at this week's low of 1.3979. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at Tuesday's high of 1.4149. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4098. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is near higher in early dealings today, on a short-covering bounce from losses on Tuesday. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $935.00 and then at $940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $926.10 and then at this week's low of $922.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.08 and then more sell stops just below support at $69.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.10. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short-covering bounce from solid to limit-down losses on Tuesday. Grain bulls are still in trouble. Serious damage has been inflicted recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. However, on Tuesday there was talk of a heat dome building over the Corn Belt in mid-July. More of this talk would be bullish for corn and beans. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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