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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday
Monday, July 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is sharply lower crude oil prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Big losses in the crude oil futures market early today are spilling over into selling pressure in most of the other raw commodity futures markets. The commodity market bulls have faded recently and evidence is mounting that market tops have been posted. An examination of the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) shows the index has backed well down from the June high. Commodity market traders will continue to look to the crude oil market for direction. And right now, serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the crude oil market as prices this morning hit a fresh six-week low.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. The bears are gaining some downside near-term technical momentum as prices closed at a bearish weekly low close on Thursday.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 882.50 and then at 875.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 893.40 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 904.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 901.90
1st Support:-------- 884.20
2nd Support:-------- 875.10
1st Resistance:----- 911.00
2nd Resistance:----- 928.70
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,425.00 and then at the June low of 1,411.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,450.00 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,450.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,454.75
1st Support:------ 1,430.50
2nd Support:------ 1,415.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,469.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,493.75
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,150 and then more stops just below support at 8,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at 8,250. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,326
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,272
1st Support:------ 8,204
2nd Support:------ 8,167
1st Resistance:--- 8,309
2nd Resistance:--- 8,377
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to weaker in early trading today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side after producing bullish weekly high closes last Thursday.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 18/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 8/32 and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 10/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--100-day moving average
120 1/32--second pivot point resistance
119 16/32--first pivot point resistance
119 9/32--previous day's high
119 4/32--Previous Month's high
118 30/32--previous day's close
118 23/32--pivot point
118 17/32--4-day moving average
118 6/32--first pivot point support
117 31/32--previous day's low
117 28/32--9-day moving average
117 13/32--second pivot point support
116 6/32--18-day moving average
111 21/32--previous month's low set
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.02.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.21.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
119 3/32--100-day moving average
117 19/32--second pivot point resistance
117 7/32--first pivot point resistance
117 2/32--previous day's high
116 27/32--previous day's close
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 22/32--pivot point
116 15/32--4-day moving average
116 10/32--first pivot point support
116 5/32--previous day's low
116 1/32--9-day moving average
115 25/32--second pivot point support
115 6/32--18-day moving average
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.25 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.75 and then at the overnight low of 80.53. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls are fading a bit. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3850 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3950 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today and hit a fresh two-week low overnight, amid a stronger U.S. dollar this morning. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $925.00 and then at $930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $920.50 and then at the June low of $913.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today, and hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $64.00 and then just above resistance at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.40 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Grain bulls are in trouble. Serious damage has been inflicted in corn and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans as the key growing month of July is under way. This week will be a critical trading week in the grain futures markets, and Monday looks to start out heavily favoring the bears. The key "outside markets" are bearish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are sharply lower, the U.S. dollar is stronger and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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