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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, July 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It looks like a case of the "Turnaround Tuesday" phenomenon in most markets today, as they have early this morning reversed the price action seen on Monday.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. The bears have gained a bit of downside near-term technical momentum recently, as prices are in the lower boundaries of their recent sideways trading ranges.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 889.60 and then at Monday's low of 882.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 900.00 and then at 910.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 904.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 891.20
1st Support:-------- 886.35
2nd Support:-------- 877.20
1st Resistance:----- 900.35
2nd Resistance:----- 905.20
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,434.50 and then at Monday's low of 1,422.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,450.00 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,450.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,435.65
1st Support:------ 1,427.35
2nd Support:------ 1,413.65
1st Resistance:--- 1,449.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,457.65
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,250 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,350 and then at 8,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,326
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,234
1st Support:------ 8,188
2nd Support:------ 8,099
1st Resistance:--- 8,323
2nd Resistance:--- 8,369
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. The bulls are fading again and need to show power soon.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 even and then at the July low of 117 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 26/32 and then at Monday's high of 119 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 10/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
121 22/32--100-day moving average
119 25/32--second pivot point resistance
119 9/32--first pivot point resistance
119 8/32--previous day's high
119 8/32--Previous Month's high
118 26/32--previous day's close
118 25/32--pivot point
118 24/32--4-day moving average
118 11/32--9-day moving average
118 9/32--first pivot point support
118 8/32--previous day's low
117 25/32--second pivot point support
116 26/32--18-day moving average
111 21/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.28.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.05.0 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
119 --100-day moving average
117 9/32--second pivot point resistance
117 2/32--first pivot point resistance
117 2/32--previous day's high
116 27/32--previous day's close
116 27/32--pivot point
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 22/32--4-day moving average
116 20/32--first pivot point support
116 20/32--previous day's low
116 13/32--second pivot point support
116 12/32--9-day moving average
115 18/32--18-day moving average
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.50 and then at the overnight high of 80.95. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.25 and then at 80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy, but bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at 1.3950. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4051 and then at 1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, amid a weaker U.S. dollar this morning. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $932.40 and then at $935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $925.00 and then at Monday's low of $920.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent losses. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $65.00 and then just above resistance at Monday's high of $65.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then more sell stops just below support at Monday's low of $63.40. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short-covering bounce following strong losses on Monday. Grain bulls are still in trouble, as one of the more important trading weeks of the year in the grains enters its second day. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in corn and wheat recently, with soybean bulls also fading. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans as the key growing month of July is under way. The key "outside markets" are bullish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are higher, the U.S. dollar is weaker and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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