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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday
Wednesday, July 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices, which hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Prices have dropped around $10.00 a barrel in just over a week's time.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Evidence is mounting that the "commodity play" that drove raw commodity markets higher the past several months is unwinding. The fact that crude oil and gold prices have been trending lower the past few weeks, while at the same time the U.S. dollar has also been trading sideways to lower, is a warning signal to commodity market bulls.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are steady to firmer in early morning trading today. The bears have some downside near-term technical momentum recently, as prices have set multi-week lows this week.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 875.50 and then at 865.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 890.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 846.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 884.30
1st Support:-------- 870.55
2nd Support:-------- 861.80
1st Resistance:----- 893.05
2nd Resistance:----- 906.80
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,401.00 and then at 1,385.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,425.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,447.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,333.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,418.65
1st Support:------ 1,390.35
2nd Support:------ 1,372.65
1st Resistance:--- 1,436.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,464.65
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 8,095 and then more stops just below support at 8,050. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at Tuesday's high of 8,255. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 7,913
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,160
1st Support:------ 8,066
2nd Support:------ 8,000
1st Resistance:--- 8,226
2nd Resistance:--- 8,320
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to firmer in early trading today. The bulls on Tuesday regained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices poked to a fresh six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 13/32 and then at 119 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 25/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120 17/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
121 20/32--100-day moving average
120 17/32--second pivot point resistance
120 --first pivot point resistance
119 20/32--previous day's high
119 15/32--previous day's close
119 8/32--Previous Month's high
119 3/32--pivot point
119 2/32--4-day moving average
118 21/32--9-day moving average
118 18/32--first pivot point support
118 6/32--previous day's low
117 21/32--second pivot point support
117 4/32--18-day moving average
111 21/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices poked to a fresh six-week high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.17.5 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.09.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.23.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
118 31/32--100-day moving average
117 29/32--second pivot point resistance
117 18/32--first pivot point resistance
117 12/32--previous day's high
117 8/32--previous day's close
117 2/32--pivot point
116 31/32--4-day moving average
116 23/32--first pivot point support
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 19/32--9-day moving average
116 17/32--previous day's low
116 7/32--second pivot point support
115 23/32--18-day moving average
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.12 and then at 81.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.12 and then at 81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy. Bulls have faded a bit recently, but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3858 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3938 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $925.90 and then at this week's high of $932.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $917.60 and then at the June low of $913.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $62.68 and then just above resistance at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $61.87 and then more sell stops just below support at $61.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading, on some short-covering following strong recorded this week. Grain bears still have fresh downside technical momentum on their side. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in corn, soybeans and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans as the key growing month of July is under way. The key "outside markets" are mostly bearish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are lower, the U.S. dollar is steady to firmer and the U.S. stock indexes are near steady.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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