Tuesday, July 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices and firmer U.S. stock indexes.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Talk among economists has recently increasingly mentioned a "double-dip" economic recession worldwide. That would mean economic indicators would again turn worse after showing recent modest improvement. The stock and commodities markets are generally reflecting this double-dip scenario. U.S. stock indexes have turned sideways to lower. Crude oil prices have backed well off the highs, as have the metals, grains and livestock. Also, if the double-dip recession does develop and play out, commodity markets will continue to generally trend lower, but gold prices would likely again rally, along with U.S. treasuries, as investors would again seek out safe-haven assets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on some short covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term overall technical playing field in the stock indexes. I look for more choppy and trendless trading in the coming weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 893.70 and then at 880.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 915.00 and then at the July high of 928.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 900.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 886.30

1st Support:-------- 875.10

2nd Support:-------- 854.60

1st Resistance:----- 906.80

2nd Resistance:----- 918.00

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,438.50 and then at 1,425.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,465.00 and then at 1,480.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,451.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,429.50

1st Support:------ 1,412.00

2nd Support:------ 1,381.50

1st Resistance:--- 1,460.00

2nd Resistance:--- 1,477.50

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then at 8,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,431

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,206

1st Support:------ 8,133

2nd Support:------ 8,006

1st Resistance:--- 8,333

2nd Resistance:--- 8,406

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. The bulls are fading again and need to show more power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 even and then at 118 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 120 even and then at the overnigth high of 120 7/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120 20/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

121 26/32--second pivot point resistance

121 14/32--100-day moving average

121 9/32--previous day's high

120 27/32--first pivot point resistance

120 11/32--pivot point

120 10/32--4-day moving average

119 29/32--previous day's close

119 26/32--previous day's low

119 16/32--9-day moving average

119 12/32--first pivot point support

119 8/32--Previous Month's high

118 28/32--second pivot point support

118 8/32--18-day moving average

111 21/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 118.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 118.15.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.24.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

119 10/32--second pivot point resistance

119 --previous day's high

118 29/32--100-day moving average

118 26/32--first pivot point resistance

118 15/32--pivot point

118 12/32--4-day moving average

118 9/32--previous day's close

118 5/32--previous day's low

117 31/32--first pivot point support

117 20/32--second pivot point support

117 16/32--9-day moving average

116 23/32--previous month's high

116 16/32--18-day moving average

112 25/32--previous month's low

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.33 and then at Monday's high of 80.70. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at last week's low of 79.88. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3960 and then at 1.3900. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4050 and then at 1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $925.10 and then at $930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $917.80 and then at the June low of $913.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $922.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on short covering. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $62.00 and then just above resistance at $62.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $60.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $59.67. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. However, grain bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans. There are still no serious, threatening weather patterns forecast for the Corn Belt. The key "outside markets" are bullish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are higher, the U.S. dollar is weaker and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer.