Wednesday, July 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes and a lower U.S. dollar.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It looks like it's going to be a good trading day for the commodity market bulls, as most commodity market prices are higher early today. The weaker U.S. dollar is helping out the commodity bulls early today. However, my bias is that solid price uptrends in most commodity futures markets will not be sustainable due to fresh worries about a "double-dip" world economic recession.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today, on the heels of some positive corporate earnings news this week. Bulls this week have regained upside near-term technical momentum to push prices up from the lower boundaries of recent trading ranges. But I look for more choppy and trendless trading in the coming weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 907.00 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 914.10 and then at the July high of 928.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 918.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 899.40

1st Support:-------- 894.85

2nd Support:-------- 888.30

1st Resistance:----- 905.95

2nd Resistance:----- 910.45

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,455.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,437.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,480.00 and then at the July high of 1,497.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,466.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,445.60

1st Support:------ 1,438.20

2nd Support:------ 1,429.60

1st Resistance:--- 1,454.20

2nd Resistance:--- 1,461.60

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,350 and then more stops just below support at 8,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then at 8,450. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,431

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,285

1st Support:------ 8,259

2nd Support:------ 8,215

1st Resistance:--- 8,329

2nd Resistance:--- 8,355

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower again in early trading today. The bears have fresh downside near-term technical momentum, amid this week's rally in the U.S. stock market.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 even and then at the July low of 117 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 23/32 and then at 119 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 23/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

121 11/32--100-day moving average

120 29/32--second pivot point resistance

120 7/32--previous day's high

119 21/32--first pivot point resistance

119 20/32--4-day moving average

119 17/32--9-day moving average

119 8/32--Previous Month's high

118 31/32--pivot point

118 15/32--18-day moving average

118 13/32--previous day's close

118 9/32--previous day's low

117 23/32--first pivot point support

117 1/32--second pivot point support

111 21/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.24.0 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.12.5 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.22.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

118 28/32--100-day moving average

118 26/32--second pivot point resistance

118 15/32--previous day's high

118 6/32--first pivot point resistance

118 4/32--4-day moving average

117 28/32--pivot point

117 21/32--9-day moving average

117 19/32--previous day's close

117 17/32--previous day's low

117 8/32--first pivot point support

116 30/32--second pivot point support

116 23/32--previous month's high

116 23/32--18-day moving average

112 25/32--previous month's low

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at the overnight high of 80.18. Shorter-term support is seen at the July low of 79.56 and then at 79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.01. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at the overnight low of 1.3964. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at 1.4150. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4097. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today. A six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has now been negated and bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $937.70 and then at $942.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $930.00 and then at the overnight low of $924.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $938.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on more short covering. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $61.00 and then just above resistance at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $59.65. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $59.67. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering. Also, the key "outside markets" are bullish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are higher, the U.S. dollar is lower and the U.S. stock indexes are higher. Gains in the grains will be limited in the near term, unless weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt turn hotter and drier in a hurry.