Thursday, July 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Trading today and Friday will be extra important for several markets, such as the U.S. stock indexes and currency markets. These markets have been trading in a sideways range for several weeks. Many of these markets have now moved close to their boundaries of the trading ranges. If recent history proves correct then these markets that are close to their trading range boundaries will reverse course. And if these markets do not reverse course in the next couple days, then they will soon produce upside or downside technical "breakouts" to suggest a fresh price trend is developing.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on a corrective pullback from big gains on Wednesday. Bulls this week have gained upside near-term technical momentum to push prices up from the lower boundaries of recent trading ranges. But I still look for more choppy and trendless trading in the coming weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 921.20 and then at 910.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 931.10 and then at 940.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 918.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 921.75

1st Support:-------- 912.50

2nd Support:-------- 897.75

1st Resistance:----- 936.50

2nd Resistance:----- 945.75

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,488.50 and then at 1,475.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 1,500.00 and then at the June high of 1,512.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,466.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,484.10

1st Support:------ 1,468.20

2nd Support:------ 1,439.10

1st Resistance:--- 1,513.20

2nd Resistance:--- 1,529.10

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,500 and then more stops just below support at 8,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 8,573 and then at 8,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,431

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,504

1st Support:------ 8,434

2nd Support:------ 8,326

1st Resistance:--- 8,612

2nd Resistance:--- 8,682

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady in early trading today. The bears have fresh downside near-term technical momentum, amid this week's rally in the U.S. stock market. The recent uptrends on the daily charts are rolling over now.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 20/32 and then at Wednesday's low of 116 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 even and then at the overnight high of 117 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 23/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

121 9/32--100-day moving average

119 19/32--second pivot point resistance

119 10/32--9-day moving average

119 8/32--Previous Month's high

119 1/32--4-day moving average

118 23/32--previous day's high

118 19/32--18-day moving average

118 4/32--first pivot point resistance

117 7/32--pivot point

116 20/32--previous day's close

116 11/32--previous day's low

115 24/32--first pivot point support

114 27/32--second pivot point support

111 21/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.00.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.20.5 and then at Wednesday's low of 116.14.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.22.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

118 27/32--100-day moving average

118 8/32--second pivot point resistance

117 27/32--4-day moving average

117 24/32--previous day's high

117 21/32--9-day moving average

117 14/32--first pivot point resistance

116 30/32--pivot point

116 27/32--18-day moving average

116 23/32--previous month's high

116 20/32--previous day's close

116 14/32--previous day's low

116 4/32--first pivot point support

115 20/32--second pivot point support

112 25/32--previous month's low

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is steady to weaker in early trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.77 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.36 and then at 79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.01. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The September Euro is steady to firmer in early electronic trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4100 and then at the overnight low of 1.4057. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4153 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4097. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is slightly lower in early dealings today. Bulls have some fresh upside near-term technical momentum. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $940.50 and then at Wednesday's high of $942.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $934.40 and then at $930.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $938.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $62.00 and then just above resistance at $62.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.75 and then more sell stops just below support at $60.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $59.67. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. Bears have near-term downside technical momentum in the grains. The key "outside markets" are neutral for the grains today, as crude oil prices are weaker, the U.S. dollar is weaker and the U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower. Any gains in the grains will be limited in the near term, unless weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt turn hotter and drier in a hurry.