Friday, July 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a higher U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies and weaker U.S. stock index prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

As I look at my price screen early this morning I see a mixture of price action. The grains and U.S. dollar index are higher, while crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker. While not yet the "norm," these days that see the markets seem to trade more on their own supply and demand fundamentals and less on the "outside market" forces are becoming more common. This is a good thing. I remember during the first half of last year when the markets nearly completely ignored their own supply and demand fundamentals and seemed only to pay attention to what the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices were doing. That led to the speculative bubble in commodity market prices, led by crude oil, that eventually burst.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on a corrective pullback from big gains seen this week. Bulls this week have gained good upside near-term technical momentum to push prices up from the lower boundaries of recent trading ranges. Bullish weekly high closes in the indexes today would provide the bulls with even more upside technical momentum.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but has turned up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 921.20 and then at 910.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 940.50 and then at the June high of 952.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 918.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 932.50

1st Support:-------- 924.45

2nd Support:-------- 913.20

1st Resistance:----- 943.75

2nd Resistance:----- 951.75

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,500.00 and then at Thursday's low of 1,488.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 1,521.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,466.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,507.40

1st Support:------ 1,493.85

2nd Support:------ 1,474.90

1st Resistance:--- 1,526.35

2nd Resistance:--- 1,539.90

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,600 and then more stops just below support at Thursday's low of 8,545. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 8,685 and then at 8,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,431

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,633

1st Support:------ 8,581

2nd Support:------ 8,493

1st Resistance:--- 8,721

2nd Resistance:--- 8,773

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, on short covering in a bear market. The bears this week have gained fresh downside near-term technical momentum, amid this week's rally in the U.S. stock market.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average but is turning down. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 1/32 and then at Thursday's low of 116 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Thursday's high of 117 26/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 23/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

121 6/32--100-day moving average

119 8/32--Previous Month's high

119 5/32--9-day moving average

118 21/32--18-day moving average

118 13/32--second pivot point resistance

118 6/32--4-day moving average

117 26/32--previous day's high

117 26/32--first pivot point resistance

117 7/32--pivot point

117 7/32--previous day's close

116 20/32--previous day's low

116 20/32--first pivot point support

116 1/32--second pivot point support

111 21/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 117.13.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.28.0 and then at Thursday's low of 116.20.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.22.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

118 26/32--100-day moving average

117 26/32--second pivot point resistance

117 22/32--9-day moving average

117 15/32--4-day moving average

117 13/32--first pivot point resistance

117 13/32--previous day's high

117 1/32--previous day's close

117 1/32--pivot point

116 30/32--18-day moving average

116 23/32--previous month's high

116 20/32--first pivot point support

116 20/32--previous day's low

116 8/32--second pivot point support

112 25/32--previous month's low

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 79.77 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 79.28 and then at 79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.01. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 1.4057 and then at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Thursday's high of 1.4167 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4097. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Gold is steady to slightly lower in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $937.90 and then at this week' high of $942.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $933.20 and then at $930.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $938.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $62.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $62.35. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $60.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $59.67. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short covering bounce following recent losses. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum in the grains. Any gains in the grains will be limited in the near term, unless weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt turn hotter and drier in a hurry, and that is not in the forecast right now.