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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, July 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in overnight/early morning trading today, in quieter trading.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My most powerful trading/analytical tool is price trend. "The trend is your friend" is an old trading adage that is tried and true. Those who follow and trade only on fundamental analysis, and ignore technicals, are usually not successful traders. (I'm talking about traders here--not long-term investors like Warren Buffet.) The U.S. stock indexes are presently a classic example of technicals having been bullish for a few months as the fundamentals were generally not bullish. By the time the bullish or bearish fundamentals in a market are realized by the general trading/investing public, the majority of the trending price move (the easy money) has already occurred.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer again in early morning trading today. Bulls have recently gained good upside near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: Prices poked to a fresh nine-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 945.00 and then at Monday's low of 933.90. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 960.00 and then at 970.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 920.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 944.10
1st Support:-------- 938.85
2nd Support:-------- 928.70
1st Resistance:----- 954.25
2nd Resistance:----- 944.10
Nasdaq Index: Prices hit a fresh nine-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,535.50 and then at Monday's low of 1,523.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,550.00 and then at 1,565.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,486.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,536.10
1st Support:------ 1,528.20
2nd Support:------ 1,515.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,548.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,556.35
September Dow: Prices hit a fresh nine-month high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,800 and then more stops just below support at 8,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,900 and then at 8,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,527
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,773
1st Support:------ 8,740
2nd Support:------ 8,676
1st Resistance:--- 8,837
2nd Resistance:--- 8,870
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower again in early trading today. The bears still have downside near-term technical momentum, amid the recent rally in the U.S. stock market.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 even and then at Monday's low of 115 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 24/32 and then at the overnight high of 117 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 12/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
121 2/32--100-day moving average
119 8/32--Previous Month's high
118 19/32--18-day moving average
118 18/32--9-day moving average
118 13/32--second pivot point resistance
117 18/32--first pivot point resistance
117 11/32--previous day's high
116 24/32--4-day moving average
116 22/32--previous day's close
116 15/32--pivot point
115 20/32--first pivot point support
115 13/32--previous day's low
114 17/32--second pivot point support
111 21/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.04.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 116.08.5 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.22.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
118 24/32--100-day moving average
117 29/32--second pivot point resistance
117 19/32--9-day moving average
117 11/32--first pivot point resistance
117 4/32--previous day's high
117 3/32--18-day moving average
116 26/32--previous day's close
116 23/32--4-day moving average
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 19/32--pivot point
116 1/32--first pivot point support
115 26/32--previous day's low
115 9/32--second pivot point support
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.25 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the June low of 78.83 and then at 78.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.01. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4182 and then at 1.4150. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Monday's high of 1.4251 and then at 1.4300. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.41000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $951.60 and then at Monday's high of $955.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $946.60 and then at $940.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $936.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $66.00 and then just above resistance at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $64.53. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Any gains in the grains will be limited by continued good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Weather is the trump card right now in the grain futures markets, and the bears are holding that card at the mid-summer point.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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