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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Thursday
Thursday, July 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As of today, here are my market biases: I think corn has put in a market bottom or is very close to it. I think there is still some more downside left in soybeans and wheat. I think crude oil has put in a market top. I see more downside than upside potential in gold. I think U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes have put in market lows. Finally, I think the U.S. dollar has a bit more to go on the downside before a major low is put in. The one factor that could prove all my above notions wrong is if the U.S. dollar does embark upon a steep and sustained decline in value. If such occurred, all the commodity markets would likely see significant rallies.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 943.70 and then at this week's low of 933.90. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 956.50 and then at 965.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 920.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 949.90
1st Support:-------- 943.25
2nd Support:-------- 937.10
1st Resistance:----- 956.05
2nd Resistance:----- 962.70
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,556.00 and then at Wednesday's low of 1,546.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 1,572.00 and then at 1,585.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,502.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,558.25
1st Support:------ 1,544.50
2nd Support:------ 1,532.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,570.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,584.00
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 8,818 and then more stops just below support at 8,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 8,900 and then at 8,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,572
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,850
1st Support:------ 8,801
2nd Support:------ 8,768
1st Resistance:--- 8,883
2nd Resistance:--- 8,932
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, amid the recent rally in the U.S. stock market.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 7/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 20/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 13/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
120 31/32--100-day moving average
119 8/32--Previous Month's high
118 31/32--second pivot point resistance
118 19/32--18-day moving average
118 15/32--previous day's high
118 6/32--first pivot point resistance
118 2/32--9-day moving average
117 22/32--pivot point
117 13/32--previous day's close
117 10/32--4-day moving average
117 6/32--previous day's low
116 29/32--first pivot point support
116 13/32--second pivot point support
111 21/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.14.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.00.0 and then at 116.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.25.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
118 23/32--100-day moving average
118 7/32--second pivot point resistance
117 29/32--previous day's high
117 24/32--first pivot point resistance
117 14/32--9-day moving average
117 14/32--pivot point
117 9/32--previous day's close
117 8/32--18-day moving average
117 4/32--4-day moving average
117 4/32--previous day's low
116 31/32--first pivot point support
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 21/32--second pivot point support
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 79.25 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday's low of 78.69 and then at 78.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.64. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4199 and then at this week's low of 1.4109. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4266 and then at this week's high of 1.4279. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4107. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Prices did hit a fresh five-week high overnight. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $956.90 and then at $960.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $950.40 and then at this week's low of $944.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $65.73 and then just above resistance at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $64.85 and then more sell stops just below support at $64.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $63.93. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. Any gains in corn and beans will continue to be limited by continued good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Weather is the trump card right now in the grain futures markets, and the bears are holding that card at the mid-summer point. Traders will scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales report.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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