Friday, July 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Several commodity futures markets made upside bursts on Thursday. Now it will be important for those markets to show follow-through strength today to produce technically bullish weekly high closes. If those markets cannot show follow-through buying strength, then it's likely they will return to choppy and more trendless trading for the near term.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning trading today. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum on their side.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 962.80 and then at Thursday's low of 948.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 973.60 and then at 985.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 934.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 964.75

1st Support:-------- 953.00

2nd Support:-------- 937.05

1st Resistance:----- 980.70

2nd Resistance:----- 992.45

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,572.00 and then at Thursday's low of 1,556.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,591.00 and then at Thursday's high of 1,604.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,525.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,581.35

1st Support:------ 1,558.70

2nd Support:------ 1,533.35

1st Resistance:--- 1,606.70

2nd Resistance:--- 1,629.35

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at 8,950. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 9,050 and then at 9,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,661

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,961

1st Support:------ 8,871

2nd Support:------ 8,752

1st Resistance:--- 9,080

2nd Resistance:--- 9,170

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, amid the recent rally in the U.S. stock market.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday's low of 115 18/32 and then at the July low of 115 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at the overnight high of 116 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 22/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

120 28/32--100-day moving average

119 8/32--Previous Month's high

118 23/32--second pivot point resistance

118 14/32--18-day moving average

117 27/32--previous day's high

117 17/32--9-day moving average

117 11/32--first pivot point resistance

117 6/32--4-day moving average

116 14/32--pivot point

115 30/32--previous day's close

115 18/32--previous day's low

115 2/32--first pivot point support

114 5/32--second pivot point support

111 21/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.15.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday's low of 115.31.0 and then at 115.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.00.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

118 21/32--100-day moving average

118 1/32--second pivot point resistance

117 15/32--previous day's high

117 7/32--18-day moving average

117 5/32--9-day moving average

117 4/32--first pivot point resistance

117 2/32--4-day moving average

116 23/32--previous month's high

116 17/32--pivot point

116 6/32--previous day's close

115 31/32--previous day's low

115 20/32--first pivot point support

115 1/32--second pivot point support

112 25/32--previous month's low

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.00 and then at this week's high of 79.32. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 78.58 and then at 78.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4200 and then at the overnight low of 1.4135. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at this week's high of 1.4294 and then at the June high of 1.4327. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4107. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is slightly lower in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week's high of $957.50 and then at $960.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $950.00 and then at the overnight low of $946.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices did hit a fresh three-week high overnight. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $67.68 and then just above resistance at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.46 and then more sell stops just below support at $66.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $64.52. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Trading has turned choppy. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. However, solid follow-through buying in the grains today would provide the bulls with some fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Still, any gains in corn and beans will continue to be limited by continued good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Summer is slipping away and still no crop-threatening weather is on the horizon for the Corn Belt.