Monday, July 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a weaker U.S. dollar against the other major currencies. The U.S. dollar index this morning dropped to a fresh 10-month low.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

With the U.S. dollar index hitting a fresh 10-month low today, the greenback is on the verge of producing a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at lower price levels. Price action in the dollar index this week will likely determine of the breakout occurs or if prices remain in the trading range. If there is a downside breakout in the dollar index, the commodity market bulls will be cheered, as that occurrence would be a bullish development for the commodity markets, led by crude oil.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today and have hit fresh multi-month highs overnight. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum on their side.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 973.90 and then at Friday's low of 962.60. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 983.70 and then at 990.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 938.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 972.90

1st Support:-------- 967.55

2nd Support:-------- 957.30

1st Resistance:----- 983.15

2nd Resistance:----- 988.50

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,592.75 and then at Friday's low of 1,572.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,607.00 and then at 1,625.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,527.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,589.75

1st Support:------ 1,579.50

2nd Support:------ 1,561.75

1st Resistance:--- 1,607.50

2nd Resistance:--- 1,617.75

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 8,965. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,100 and then at 9,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,669

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 9,028

1st Support:------ 8,995

2nd Support:------ 8,933

1st Resistance:--- 9,090

2nd Resistance:--- 9,123

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. Trading has been choppy to lower recently. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, amid the recent rally in the U.S. stock market.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the July low of 115 13/32 and then at 115 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at the overnight high of 116 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 12/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

120 26/32--100-day moving average

119 8/32--Previous Month's high

118 9/32--18-day moving average

117 8/32--9-day moving average

116 27/32--4-day moving average

116 24/32--second pivot point resistance

116 14/32--first pivot point resistance

116 12/32--previous day's high

116 3/32--previous day's close

116 1/32--pivot point

115 23/32--first pivot point support

115 21/32--previous day's low

115 10/32--second pivot point support

111 21/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.15.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.26.5 and then at the July low of 115.21.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.06.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

118 21/32--100-day moving average

117 7/32--18-day moving average

116 30/32--9-day moving average

116 27/32--4-day moving average

116 25/32--second pivot point resistance

116 23/32--previous month's high

116 19/32--first pivot point resistance

116 16/32--previous day's high

116 12/32--previous day's close

116 9/32--pivot point

116 3/32--first pivot point support

116 --previous day's low

115 25/32--second pivot point support

112 25/32--previous month's low

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today and hit a fresh 10-month low overnight. Bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.12 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.50 and then at 78.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4200 and then at the overnight low of 1.4171. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4300 and then at the June high of 1.4327. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4107. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today. Prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $960.00 and then at $965.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $950.00 and then at the overnight low of $947.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Prices did hit a fresh three-week high overnight. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.99 and then just above resistance at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $67.68. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $68.83. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. Any gains in corn and beans will continue to be limited by continued good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt, as mid-summer is now passing by. Selling interest in the grains today will be limited by bullishly postured outside markets that include higher crude oil and stock index prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.