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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, July 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is again a weaker U.S. dollar against the other major currencies. The U.S. dollar index this morning poked to a fresh 10-month low.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The lack of volatility in the U.S. stock indexes recently, while at the same time the indexes have scored multi-month highs, is a bullish clue and suggests the uptrends can continue. It's those unassuming price trends that are most likely to keep chugging along, slowly but more surely.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on mild profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday's low of 969.00 and then at 962.60. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 983.70 and then at 990.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 938.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 977.55
1st Support:-------- 971.40
2nd Support:-------- 962.83
1st Resistance:----- 986.10
2nd Resistance:----- 992.25
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,579.00 and then at 1,572.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 1,607.00 and then at 1,625.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,527.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,595.20
1st Support:------ 1,583.35
2nd Support:------ 1,567.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,611.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,623.20
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at 8,965. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 9,075 and then at 9,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,669
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 9,045
1st Support:------ 9,015
2nd Support:------ 8,960
1st Resistance:--- 9,100
2nd Resistance:--- 9,130
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, on short covering. Trading has been choppy to lower recently. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, amid the recent rally in the U.S. stock market.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 6/32 and then at Monday's low of 114 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at Monday's high of 116 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 12/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
120 23/32--100-day moving average
119 8/32--Previous Month's high
118 4/32--18-day moving average
116 30/32--second pivot point resistance
116 22/32--9-day moving average
116 10/32--previous day's high
116 7/32--first pivot point resistance
116 4/32--4-day moving average
115 18/32--pivot point
115 15/32--previous day's close
114 30/32--previous day's low
114 27/32--first pivot point support
114 6/32--second pivot point support
111 21/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 116.15.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.25.0 and then at Monday's low of 115.19.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.06.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
118 19/32--100-day moving average
117 6/32--18-day moving average
116 28/32--second pivot point resistance
116 23/32--9-day moving average
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 15/32--previous day's high
116 14/32--first pivot point resistance
116 13/32--4-day moving average
116 --pivot point
115 31/32--previous day's close
115 19/32--previous day's low
115 18/32--first pivot point support
115 4/32--second pivot point support
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today and hit another fresh 10-month low overnight. Bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.86 and then at 79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 78.42 and then at 78.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.47. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4200 and then at Monday's low of 1.4171. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4306 and then at the June high of 1.4327. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4177. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $956.80 and then at Monday's high of $960.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $950.00 and then at Monday's low of $947.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.86 and then just above resistance at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.50 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $68.83. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering and on a surprise decline in corn and soybean crop ratings in the weekly USDA crop progress reports, issued Monday afternoon. However, bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. Any gains in corn and beans will continue to be limited by continued good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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