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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday
Wednesday, July 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar against the other major currencies.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Looking at the daily chart for September crude oil futures, my bias is that a near-term top is in place and that prices in the coming weeks will chop around in a trading range between this week's high of $68.99 and the July low of $59.30.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 964.10 and then at 950.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 976.00 and then at this week's high of 983.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 938.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 974.50
1st Support:-------- 967.70
2nd Support:-------- 959.50
1st Resistance:----- 982.70
2nd Resistance:----- 989.50
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,588.75 and then at 1,572.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,608.00 and then at 1,625.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,527.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,596.85
1st Support:------ 1,585.70
2nd Support:------ 1,569.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,612.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,623.85
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at 8,965. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 9,075 and then at 9,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,669
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 9,030
1st Support:------ 8,985
2nd Support:------ 8,920
1st Resistance:--- 9,095
2nd Resistance:--- 9,140
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, on more short covering. Trading has been choppy to lower recently. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a solid up day today would give the bulls some fresh upside technical momentum.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 29/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 24/32n and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 10/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32--lifetime high
120 20/32--100-day moving average
119 8/32--Previous Month's high
117 31/32--18-day moving average
117 16/32--second pivot point resistance
116 23/32--first pivot point resistance
116 23/32--previous day's high
116 20/32--9-day moving average
115 31/32--previous day's close
115 31/32--pivot point
115 26/32--4-day moving average
115 6/32--first pivot point support
115 6/32--previous day's low
114 14/32--second pivot point support
111 21/32--previous month's low
110 8/32--lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.16.0 and then at Tuesday's high of 116.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.00.0 and then at this week's low of 115.19.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.28.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32--lifetime high
118 17/32--100-day moving average
117 5/32--18-day moving average
117 4/32--second pivot point resistance
116 23/32--previous month's high
116 23/32--previous day's high
116 21/32--9-day moving average
116 19/32--first pivot point resistance
116 6/32--pivot point
116 4/32--4-day moving average
116 2/32--previous day's close
115 25/32--previous day's low
115 21/32--first pivot point support
115 8/32--second pivot point support
112 25/32--previous month's low
109 --lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.50 and then at 79.75. Shorter-term support is seen at .7900 and then at the overnight low of 78.87. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.47. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4050 and then at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4150 and then at the overnight high of 1.4197. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4177. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower again in early dealings today. Bulls have faded badly this week. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $940.90 and then at $945.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $932.80 and then at $930.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls are fading. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $67.01 and then just above resistance at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $65.38 and then more sell stops just below support at $65.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $65.32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar is stronger, while crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes are lower. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. Any gains in corn and beans will continue to be limited by continued good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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