Thursday, July 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

NOTE: I will be out of the office Friday and all of next week. I am celebrating my 30th wedding anniversary by spending time with my wife and family high in the Colorado Rockies, doing some Jeeping and hiking. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my daily reports for me while I'm gone. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy his analysis.--Jim

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar against the other major currencies.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

"One day does not a trend make" is a truism, especially when it comes to the U.S. dollar index. The closely watched index posted a solid corrective bounce on Wednesday, but is weaker again today. One early clue that the U.S. dollar index has put in a market low would be if the index posted to real strong up days in a row. That has not occurred yet.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum on their side.

September S&P 500: Prices poked to a fresh 10-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 973.30 and then at this week's low of 964.10. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 984.90 and then at 990.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 940.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 971.70

1st Support:-------- 967.35

2nd Support:-------- 959.80

1st Resistance:----- 979.25

2nd Resistance:----- 983.60

Nasdaq Index: Prices poked to a fresh 10-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,599.75 and then at this week's low of 1,579.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,625.00 and then at 1,640.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,534.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,595.90

1st Support:------ 1,588.85

2nd Support:------ 1,576.90

1st Resistance:--- 1,607.85

2nd Resistance:--- 1,614.90

September Dow: Prices hit a fresh 10-month high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,050 and then more stops just below support at 9,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,150 and then at 9,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,703

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 9,022

1st Support:------ 8,995

2nd Support:------ 8,942

1st Resistance:--- 9,075

2nd Resistance:--- 9,102

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker in early trading today. Trading has been choppy recently. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday's low of 115 16/32 and then at this week's low of 114 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 11/32 and then at Wednesday's high of 116 31/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 13/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32--lifetime high

120 17/32--100-day moving average

119 8/32--Previous Month's high

117 27/32--18-day moving average

117 24/32--second pivot point resistance

117 2/32--first pivot point resistance

116 31/32--previous day's high

116 17/32--9-day moving average

116 12/32--previous day's close

116 9/32--pivot point

116 --4-day moving average

115 19/32--first pivot point support

115 16/32--previous day's low

114 26/32--second pivot point support

111 21/32--previous month's low

110 8/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.00.0 and then at Wednesday's high of 116.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.22.0 and then at this week's low of 115.15.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.27.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32--lifetime high

118 16/32--100-day moving average

117 4/32--18-day moving average

117 1/32--second pivot point resistance

116 23/32--previous month's high

116 18/32--9-day moving average

116 17/32--first pivot point resistance

116 16/32--previous day's high

116 4/32--4-day moving average

116 1/32--previous day's close

116 --pivot point

115 16/32--first pivot point support

115 15/32--previous day's low

114 31/32--second pivot point support

112 25/32--previous month's low

109 --lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 79.81 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of .7930 and then at 79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.47. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1.4007 and then at 1.3950. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4096 and then at 1.4150. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4177. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today, on short covering after recent solid losses. Bulls have faded this week. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $934.30 and then at $940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $928.40 and then at this week's low of $925.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $937.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on a corrective bounce from strong losses Wednesday. Bulls are still fading a bit. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $64.44 and then just above resistance at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $62.76. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $65.32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering. The key "outside markets" are in a bullish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar is weaker, while crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. Any gains in corn and beans will continue to be limited by continued good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Traders will closely examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. China has been a recent buyer of U.S. soybeans.