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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Friday
Friday, July 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
NOTE: I am out of the office today and all of next week. I am celebrating my 30th wedding anniversary by spending time with my wife and family high in the ColoradoRockies, doing some Jeeping and hiking. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my daily reports for me while I'm gone. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy his analysis.--Jim
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 62% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 1635.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1518.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1635.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1585.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1518.16. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 3.00 pts. at 1609.75 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1044.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 934.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 994.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1044.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 969.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 934.80. The September S&P 500 Index was up 4.00 pts. at 986.20 as of 6:04 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extended the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 113-22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 117-16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 114-30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113-22.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews Wednesday's decline, this month's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 68.99 are needed to renew the rally off this month's low. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.99. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.38. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 62.70.
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering gains. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, last September's low crossing at 78.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.16. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.42. Second support is last September's low crossing at 78.32.
The September Euro was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 138.320 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.705 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. From a broad perspective, September needs to close above 143.270 or below 137.360 to confirm a breakout of this summer's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.705. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 143.060. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 140.070. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 138.320.
PRECIOUS METALS
October gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 906.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 946.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. From a broad perspective, October gold has been locked in a broad trading range since February. Closes above 1008.70 or below 870.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of this year's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 940.70. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 946.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 926.50. Second support is this month' s low crossing at 906.40.
GRAINS
September corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it extends Thursday's rally. The high-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 3.42 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes above 3.42 1/4 or below 3.04 are needed to confirm a breakout of this month's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.36 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.42 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.24 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.21 1/2.
September wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a harvest low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September extends this summer's decline, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
September soybeans were higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally above the June-July downtrend line crossing near 10.13 1/4. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 10.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.65 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.81. First support is the broken June-July uptrend line crossing near 10.13 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.70 1/4.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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