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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday
Monday, August 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
NOTE: I am out of the office and all of this week. I am celebrating my 30th wedding anniversary by spending time with my wife and family high in the Colorado Rockies, doing some Jeeping and hiking. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my daily reports for me while I'm gone. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy his analysis.--Jim
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 62% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 1635.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1526.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1635.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1592.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1526.90. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 21.00 pts. at 1622.75 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning. The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this summer's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1044.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 939.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 996.70. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1044.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 974.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 939.73. The September S&P 500 Index was up 11.30 pts. at 995.70 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning. INTEREST RATES September T-bonds were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-27. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's rally, July's high crossing at 121-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 119-08. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 121-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-27. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-31. ENERGY MARKETS September crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 70.95. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.80. CURRENCIES The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last week's downside breakout of this summer's trading range crossing at 78.83. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the overnight decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 79.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.93. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.49. First support is the overnight low crossing at 78.07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 75.73. The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the overnight rally, June's high crossing at 143.270 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 140.070 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broad perspective, September needs to close above 143.270 or below 137.360 to confirm a breakout of this summer's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 143.180. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 143.270. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.892. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.100. PRECIOUS METALS October gold was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 10-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 961.10 would renew the rally off July's low while opening the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of August. From a broad perspective, October gold has been locked in a broad trading range since February. Closes above 1008.70 or below 870.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of this year's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 961.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 967.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 948.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 938.50. GRAINS September corn gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 38% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 3.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.24 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.53. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 3.63. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.24 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.04. September wheat was higher due to short covering overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the overnight rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4 is the next upside target. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews this summer's decline, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.36. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/4. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4. SOYBEAN COMPLEX September soybeans gapped up and were sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, June's high crossing at 11.35 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the overnight gap crossing at 10.45 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10.92 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 11.35 1/2. First support is the overnight gap crossing at 10.45 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.84 1/4.
Tags:market-news, commodity-trading, currencies, dow-djia, energies, futures-trading, grains, interest-rates, metals, nasdaq, sp-500, stock-indexes, t-bonds-t-notes, education
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