Tuesday, August 17-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

This week will be an extra important week in the currency markets. The U.S. dollar index is weaker again today, following a modest sell off on Monday. If the dollar index this week does show more downside price action, then it's likely the downtrend in prices will resume, and that last week's price strength was just a decent upside correction in the overall downtrend.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,090.00 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,074.80 and then at Monday's low of 1,066.60. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 1,842.75 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,817.00 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,300 and then more stops just below support at 10,273. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,350 and then at 10,400. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 134 1/32 and then at 134 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 11/32 and then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

133 31/32--lifetime high
135 9/32--second pivot point resistance
134 19/32--first pivot point resistance
133 31/32--previous day's high
133 29/32--previous day's close
133 9/32--pivot point
132 19/32--first pivot point support
132 4/32--4-day moving average
131 31/32--previous day's low
131 9/32--second pivot point support
130 12/32--9-day moving average
129 14/32--Previous Month's high
128 30/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
122 21/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 126.00.0 and then at the contract high of 126.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 125.17.5 and then at 125.07.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 22/32--second pivot point resistance
126 14/32--first pivot point resistance
126 8/32--lifetime high
126 8/32--previous day's high
126 5/32--previous day's close
125 31/32--pivot point
125 23/32--first pivot point support
125 22/32--4-day moving average
125 17/32--previous day's low
125 8/32--second pivot point support
124 30/32--9-day moving average
124 1/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
119 23/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower again in early trading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.61 and then at 83.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.11 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent selling pressure. Bulls have faded recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of 76.33 and then at $76.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.50 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from losses on Monday. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Would-be top pickers in the grains still need to beware. Traders will focus on this week's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour and on any fresh U.S. export demand news.