Wednesday, August 18-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

U.S. T-bonds and T-notes futures prices are hovering near the recent contract highs. The U.S. Treasury market bulls are snorting and there are no early technical clues that market tops are close at hand. In fact, a look at longer-term price charts
for bonds and notes reveals that history shows there is still significantly more room on the upside for the bull runs to continue.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,100.00 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,080.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,074.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 1,850.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,860.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,831.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,817.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 10,315 and then more stops just below support at 10,273. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,400 and then at Tuesday's high of 10,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 134 1/32 and then at 134 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 even and then at Tuesday's low of 132 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

133 31/32--lifetime high
134 13/32--second pivot point resistance
133 30/32--previous day's high
133 22/32--first pivot point resistance
133 8/32--pivot point
133 --previous day's close
132 25/32--previous day's low
132 17/32--first pivot point support
132 17/32--4-day moving average
132 3/32--second pivot point support
130 30/32--9-day moving average
129 14/32--Previous Month's high
129 6/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
122 27/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 126.08.0 and then at 126.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 125.19.0 and then at 125.07.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 14/32--second pivot point resistance
126 8/32--lifetime high
126 6/32--previous day's high
126 2/32--first pivot point resistance
125 25/32--pivot point
125 22/32--4-day moving average
125 21/32--previous day's close
125 17/32--previous day's low
125 13/32--first pivot point support
125 5/32--9-day moving average
125 4/32--second pivot point support
124 5/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
119 26/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.60 and then at 83.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.09 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today and hit a fresh five-week low overnight. Bulls have faded recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of 75.74 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.67 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Would-be top pickers in the grains still need to beware. Traders will focus on this week's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour and on any fresh U.S. export demand news. So far, early reports from the crop tour are finding mixed conditions, but it appears the markets are reading the early results as slightly friendly for corn and soybean futures prices.