Thursday, August 19-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

We've got about three more weeks of lighter-volume dealings in the stock market until traders in the U.S. and Europe really get back to focusing on their investing. In early September, look for the U.S. and European stock markets to heat up. Traders at that time will likely exhibit much more scrutiny regarding the economic and financial situations in Europe and the U.S. With the U.S. and Europe still experiencing economic troubles, and with September and October being historically bearish months for the stock market, the stock market bulls will have a daunting task in about three weeks. And for those traders who don't trade stocks or the stock indexes, remember that the stock indexes are the key "outside market" that does lead most other markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,100.00 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,080.00 and then at 1,074.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 1,850.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,834.25 and then at 1,817.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,352 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 10,310. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,400 and then at Wednesday's high of 10,455. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133 16/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 even and then at 132 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

134 25/32--second pivot point resistance
134 7/32--lifetime high
134 7/32--previous day's high
134 2/32--first pivot point resistance
133 15/32--pivot point
133 10/32--previous day's close
133 1/32--4-day moving average
132 29/32--previous day's low
132 24/32--first pivot point support
132 5/32--second pivot point support
131 15/32--9-day moving average
129 17/32--18-day moving average
129 14/32--Previous Month's high
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 1/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 125.23.5 and then at 126.01.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 125.06.5 and then at 125.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 8/32--lifetime high
126 7/32--second pivot point resistance
126 1/32--previous day's high
125 29/32--first pivot point resistance
125 24/32--4-day moving average
125 23/32--pivot point
125 19/32--previous day's close
125 17/32--previous day's low
125 13/32--first pivot point support
125 11/32--9-day moving average
125 7/32--second pivot point support
124 10/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
119 30/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.83 and then at 83.00. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 81.99 and then at 81.65. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. Bulls have faded recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of 76.10 and then at this week's high of $76.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.86. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. The grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Today, traders will focus on the weekly USDA export sales report. Recently, grain traders have chosen to focus more on the demand side of the equation for corn and soybeans, as record-large corn and soybean crops are likely to be harvested in the U.S. this autumn.