Friday, August 20-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Here are my market biases, at present: the grains are at or near market tops and so are livestock futures. Crude oil will trade in a range between $70.00 and $80.00. Gold has more upside and so do T-Bonds and T-Notes. And, the U.S. dollar index has put in a near-term bottom and will trade sideways to higher in the coming weeks, or longer.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,075.90 and then at 1,085.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,063.50 and then at 1,050.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,827.25 and then at 1,842.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the August low of 1,800.00 and then at 1,785.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at this week's low of 10,185 and then more stops just below support at 10,150. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,235 and then at 10,275. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 135 7/32 and then at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 134 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 134 7/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

134 31/32--lifetime high
136 3/32--second pivot point resistance
135 8/32--first pivot point resistance
134 31/32--previous day's high
134 12/32--previous day's close
134 3/32--pivot point
133 20/32--4-day moving average
133 8/32--first pivot point support
132 31/32--previous day's low
132 3/32--second pivot point support
132 1/32--9-day moving average
129 30/32--18-day moving average
129 14/32--Previous Month's high
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 8/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 126.16.0 and then at 126.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 126.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 125.26.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 23/32--second pivot point resistance
126 11/32--first pivot point resistance
126 8/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--previous day's high
125 30/32--previous day's close
125 28/32--4-day moving average
125 24/32--pivot point
125 20/32--9-day moving average
125 12/32--first pivot point support
125 6/32--previous day's low
124 25/32--second pivot point support
124 16/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 2/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading. Bulls are regaining upside bullish momentum and are poised to produce a bullish weekly high close on Friday. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.27 and then at the August high of 83.35. Shorter-term support is seen at 83.00 and then at 82.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and hit a fresh six-week low. Bears have downside technical momentum. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then at the overnight high of $74.60. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.24 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are in a bearish posture for the grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index is higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are lower. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has turned choppy recently, and that does slightly favor the bears.