JimWyckoff's Commentaries
Aug
23
2010
Grain Market Analysis
by JimWyckoff
Overall Rating:
November soybeans on Friday closed lower, nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-week low. Prices also scored a bearish weekly low close and have seen a bearish "downside breakout" from a recent sideways trading range at higher levels on the daily chart. The bulls have faded badly recently and need to show fresh power soon to jump-start the price uptrend. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is pushing and closing November prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $10.49. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $10.00. First resistance for November soybeans is seen at Friday's high of $10.15 and then at $10.25. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at the August low of $9.97 3/4.
$15.55 1/2 --- the contract high
$10.26 1/2 --- 10-day moving average
$10.14 1/4 --- 20-day moving average
$9.79 3/4 ---- 40-day moving average
$8.09 3/4 ---- the contract low
$10.26 1/2 --- 10-day moving average
$10.14 1/4 --- 20-day moving average
$9.79 3/4 ---- 40-day moving average
$8.09 3/4 ---- the contract low
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
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December soybean meal on Friday closed lower, nearer the session low, hit a fresh two-week low and closed at a bearish weekly low close. Meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are now fading a bit. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $286.90. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $304.50. First resistance comes in at Friday's high of $295.90 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at Friday's low of $292.30 and then at $290.00.
$383.00 --- contract high
$294.80 --- 10-day moving average
$291.40 --- 20-day moving average
$283.20 --- 40-day moving average
$236.70 --- the contract low
$294.80 --- 10-day moving average
$291.40 --- 20-day moving average
$283.20 --- 40-day moving average
$236.70 --- the contract low
December soybean oil on Friday closed lower, nearer the session low, hit a fresh three-week low and closed at a bearish weekly low close. Serious near-term technical damage was inflicted last week to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 39.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 42.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 40.34 and then at Friday's high of 40.69 cents. First support is seen at Friday's low of 39.87 cents and then at 39.50 cents.
70.00 --- the contract high
41.84 --- 10-day moving average
41.32 --- 20-day moving average
39.78 --- 40-day moving average
31.80 --- the contract low
41.84 --- 10-day moving average
41.32 --- 20-day moving average
39.78 --- 40-day moving average
31.80 --- the contract low
December corn on Friday closed higher, nearer the session high, closed at a bullish weekly high close and closed at a fresh seven-month high close. The corn market bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained some fresh upside technical momentum on Friday. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $4.38 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $4.00. First resistance for December corn is seen at $4.38 3/4 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at $4.33 and then at $4.30.
$7.05 -------- the contract high
$4.23 3/4 ---- 10-day moving average
$4.12 1/2 ---- 20-day moving average
$3.98 3/4 ---- 40-day moving average
$3.43 1/4 ---- the contract low
$4.23 3/4 ---- 10-day moving average
$4.12 1/2 ---- 20-day moving average
$3.98 3/4 ---- 40-day moving average
$3.43 1/4 ---- the contract low
December Chicago wheat on Friday closed slightly lower and near mid-range. Chart damage has been inflicted recently to still suggest a market top is in place in wheat. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid resistance at $7.68 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.60. First resistance is seen at Friday's high of $7.29 and then at $7.40. First support lies at $7.00 and then at $6.89 1/4.
$10.38 1/4 --- the contract high
$7.16 3/4 ---- 10-day moving average
$7.08 3/4 ---- 20-day moving average1
$6.37 3/4 ---- 40-day moving average
$4.72 3/4 ---- the contract low
$7.16 3/4 ---- 10-day moving average
$7.08 3/4 ---- 20-day moving average1
$6.37 3/4 ---- 40-day moving average
$4.72 3/4 ---- the contract low
December KCBT wheat on Friday closed steady and nearer the session high. It's still likely the HRW market has put in a near-term top. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $7.64 1/2. The bears' next downside objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $6.45. First resistance is seen at Friday's high of $7.25 and then at $7.33 1/2. First support is seen at Friday's low of $7.12 and then at $7.00.
$10.35 ------ the contract high
$7.20 1/4 --- 10-day moving average
$7.07 3/4 --- 20-day moving average
$6.39 1/2 --- 40-day moving average
$4.85 3/4 --- the contract low
$7.20 1/4 --- 10-day moving average
$7.07 3/4 --- 20-day moving average
$6.39 1/2 --- 40-day moving average
$4.85 3/4 --- the contract low
Tags: corn | soybeans | wheat | grains | futures
