Monday, August 23-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Markets are generally quiet to start the trading week. We are nearing the end of the "dog days of summer." Next week will likely be another quieter, lower-volume trading week, heading into the U.S. Labor Day holiday. In early September, look for market activity to heat up significantly, as traders in the U.S. and Europe get back to serious business, following summertime vacations.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,085.00 and then at last week's high of 1,098.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,068.80 and then at last week's low of 1,061.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 1,850.00 and then at last week's high of 1,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,824.50 and then at Friday's low of 1,808.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,200 and then more stops just below support at 10,150. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,250 and then at 10,300. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 9/32 and then at 134 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 27/32 and then at 133 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 7/32--lifetime high
135 22/32--second pivot point resistance
135 7/32--previous day's high
134 27/32--first pivot point resistance
134 12/32--pivot point
134 --previous day's close
133 29/32--previous day's low
133 21/32--4-day moving average
133 17/32--first pivot point support
133 2/32--second pivot point support
132 17/32--9-day moving average
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
130 12/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 14/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 125.20.0 and then at 126.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 125.06.5 and then at 125.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 18/32--second pivot point resistance
126 8/32--lifetime high
126 8/32--previous day's high
126 1/32--first pivot point resistance
125 24/32--pivot point
125 22/32--4-day moving average
125 20/32--9-day moving average
125 17/32--previous day's close
125 14/32--previous day's low
125 7/32--first pivot point support
124 30/32--second pivot point support
124 22/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 5/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading. Bulls have regained upside bullish momentum after producing a bullish weekly high close on Friday. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.24 and then at last week's high of 83.43. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.75 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly higher early today after hitting a fresh six-week low and closing at a bearish weekly low close on Friday. Bears still have some downside technical momentum. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.50 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week's low of $73.44 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are in a slightly bullish posture for the grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher. Soybean market bulls have faded recently, but the corn bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Wheat has seen choppy trading, but it still appears a market top is in place in wheat.